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The indie mobile app opportunity is resurging due to a "Lollapalooza effect." AI coding tools have drastically reduced development costs for solo founders, while platforms like TikTok have created a powerful new channel for viral discovery and distribution.
The Push-scroll app team first created a viral TikTok video pretending their app already existed. When the video confirmed massive demand, they built it. This "if they come, we will build it" approach inverts the traditional model and significantly de-risks development.
Contrary to the belief that AI will kill most apps, lower development costs will make it profitable to build and maintain software for smaller, niche audiences. This affordability will likely lead to an explosion of specialized apps rather than market consolidation.
Individuals will use AI to build bespoke software for personal use. A subset of these tools will find a niche market, creating entrepreneurs who operate outside the VC-funded, subscription-SaaS model, potentially favoring one-time purchase models due to low development costs.
Simple, gimmicky apps in health and productivity are the new info products. AI coding makes them cheap to build, and TikTok makes them easy to market. They offer the "make money from anywhere" lifestyle that info products once promised, but with a tech product wrapper.
The ChatGPT App Store launch is being compared to the original Apple App Store. Developers who are early and build useful applications for its 800 million weekly active users have the opportunity to create significant businesses, mirroring the success of early mobile app pioneers who capitalized on first-mover advantage.
To achieve viral validation on platforms like TikTok, an app must be extremely simple. It needs a core concept that can be explained in just a few words (e.g., "track your acne") and has a strong visual component that is compelling in short-form video content, making it easily shareable.
Similar to how mobile gave rise to the App Store, AI platforms like OpenAI and Perplexity will create their own ecosystems for discovering and using services. The next wave of winning startups will be those built to distribute through these new agent-based channels, while incumbents may be slow to adapt.
While the internet has consolidated around major platforms, AI presents a counter-force. By drastically lowering the cost and complexity of building mobile apps, new tools could enable a 'Cambrian explosion' of personalized applications, challenging the one-size-fits-all model.
AI coding tools dramatically lower the barrier to software creation, enabling a new wave of 'indie' developers. This will lead to an explosion of hyper-personal, niche apps designed to solve specific problems for small user groups, shifting the focus away from universal, VC-scale software.
The barrier to entry for entrepreneurship has collapsed. Anyone, regardless of technical skill or capital, can now use tools like ChatGPT and Replit to create a formal business plan and a functional app, effectively democratizing innovation.