Contrary to the belief that AI will kill most apps, lower development costs will make it profitable to build and maintain software for smaller, niche audiences. This affordability will likely lead to an explosion of specialized apps rather than market consolidation.
The AI market is becoming "polytheistic," with numerous specialized models excelling at niche tasks, rather than "monotheistic," where a single super-model dominates. This fragmentation creates opportunities for differentiated startups to thrive by building effective models for specific use cases, as no single model has mastered everything.
AI will democratize software development to the point where building your own custom apps becomes commonplace. Instead of settling for one-size-fits-all solutions, people will create "personal software" perfectly tailored to their specific workflows, like a custom workout tracker.
The barrier to creating software is collapsing. Non-coders can now build sophisticated, personalized applications for specific workflows in under an hour. This points to a future where individuals and teams create their own disposable, custom tools, replacing subscriptions to numerous niche SaaS products.
Individuals will use AI to build bespoke software for personal use. A subset of these tools will find a niche market, creating entrepreneurs who operate outside the VC-funded, subscription-SaaS model, potentially favoring one-time purchase models due to low development costs.
The proliferation of AI development tools points to a future of billions of hyper-specialized applications. This could end the concept of a single, consistent user experience, creating a reality where every digital product is uniquely customized for each individual user.
The cloud era created a fragmented landscape of single-purpose SaaS tools, leading to enterprise fatigue. AI enables unified platforms to perform these specialized tasks, creating a massive consolidation wave and disrupting the niche application market.
While the internet has consolidated around major platforms, AI presents a counter-force. By drastically lowering the cost and complexity of building mobile apps, new tools could enable a 'Cambrian explosion' of personalized applications, challenging the one-size-fits-all model.
The true commercial impact of AI will likely come from small, specialized "micro models" solving boring, high-volume business tasks. While highly valuable, these models are cheap to run and cannot economically justify the current massive capital expenditure on AGI-focused data centers.
AI will decentralize entrepreneurship by enabling solo founders to build software for niche markets. These small markets, often dismissed by VCs, can support highly profitable lifestyle businesses for individuals, creating a new wave of company creation outside the traditional Silicon Valley model.
AI coding tools dramatically lower the barrier to software creation, enabling a new wave of 'indie' developers. This will lead to an explosion of hyper-personal, niche apps designed to solve specific problems for small user groups, shifting the focus away from universal, VC-scale software.