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Despite fears of displacement, Apollo's chief economist finds no evidence of AI-driven job losses in current employment data. The AI boom is creating jobs for implementation experts and in data center construction, putting upward pressure on both employment and inflation, a real-time example of Jevons paradox.
Contrary to the job loss narrative, AI will increase demand for knowledge workers. By drastically lowering the cost of their output (like code or medical scans), AI expands the number of use cases and total market demand, creating more jobs for humans to prompt, interpret, and validate the AI's work.
Counterintuitively, making a task cheaper and easier with AI doesn't just eliminate jobs; it drastically increases the overall demand for that task. Just as Excel created more accountants, AI's efficiencies will lead to an explosion in the volume of work, creating new roles and opportunities.
Contrary to the dominant job-loss narrative, a Vanguard study reveals that occupations highly exposed to AI are experiencing faster growth in both jobs and wages. This suggests AI is currently acting as a productivity tool that increases the value of labor rather than replacing it.
Despite AI's narrative as a labor-replacement technology, NVIDIA's booming chip sales are occurring alongside strong job growth. This suggests that, for now, AI is acting as a productivity tool that is creating economic expansion and new roles faster than it is causing net job destruction.
Despite predictions of mass unemployment from tech leaders, the actual economic data shows the opposite. U.S. unemployment is below historical averages, and new business creation has doubled in the last decade. The predicted 'exogenous meteor coming for the employment market' is not reflected in reality.
AI makes tasks cheaper and faster. This increased efficiency doesn't reduce the need for workers; instead, it increases the demand for their work, as companies can now afford to do more of it. This creates a positive feedback loop that may lead to more hiring, not less.
While AI causes job losses in sectors like Information, it simultaneously drives significant job creation. Demand-side effects, including data center construction and wealth effects from AI stocks boosting spending, currently create more jobs than AI displaces, resulting in a net positive impact.
Economists see no AI job loss in data because, like cheaper coal in the 1860s, cheaper intelligence via AI doesn't shrink demand. Instead, it explodes it, creating new roles and applications that offset initial displacement.
Initial data from industries with high AI exposure shows productivity gains are driven by increased output, not reduced labor hours. This counters the common narrative that AI's primary effect will be immediate, widespread job displacement, suggesting a period of augmentation precedes automation.
The Jevons Paradox observes that technologies increasing efficiency often boost consumption rather than reduce it. Applied to AI, this means while some jobs will be automated, the increased productivity will likely expand the scope and volume of work, creating new roles, much like typewriters ultimately increased secretarial work.