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Finnish President Alexander Stubb posits the world is at a major historical turning point, comparable to 1945 or 1989. He argues the future geopolitical landscape will be shaped not by traditional Western powers but by the 'Global South,' as other nations have successfully cultivated relationships there while the West has been neglectful.
To manage global shifts, Alexander Stubb advocates for reforming institutions like the UN Security Council to give rising nations more power. This strategy aims to secure their buy-in for a rules-based system, arguing it's more stable than building separate alliances of middle powers outside of existing frameworks.
The current international system isn't merely a contest between the US and China. Middle and even small powers like Turkey, Brazil, and Singapore are actively pursuing "strategic autonomy" and recrafting foreign policy, creating a more complex, diffuse web of competition across the globe.
Finland's president explains that the US can entertain a "multipolar" world of transactional deals because of its immense power. In contrast, smaller nations like Finland depend on a "multilateral," rules-based order for their security and prosperity. For them, multilateralism is not a choice but a geopolitical necessity.
The shift away from a unipolar world is not a managed process. It's a chaotic reorganization driven by conflicts over essential resources like energy. Nations are forced to abandon old allegiances and form new, pragmatic alliances to protect their core interests.
Many developing countries view Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while illegal, as an inevitable check on decades of unchecked US power and NATO expansion. Their memory of the "unipolar moment" is one of American imposition, making them quietly support a rebalancing of global power.
President Stubb posits that the era of Western dominance is over, but the East won't simply replace it. The Global South's collective scale in population, economy, and technology gives it the decisive power to shape the future international system.
China's engagement with the Global South is not just about trade; it's a deliberate strategy to use these 100+ nations as an 'agent' to rewire global institutions and build a new world order that serves its own interests, expanding into the West's geopolitical blind spot.
Alexander Stubb argues the world order isn't breaking but evolving. His confidence stems from the protective power of international institutions like the EU, which can counter threats like tariffs and secure trade deals. This contrasts with more alarmist views that see the current instability as a complete system breakdown.
Dalio predicts the end of the US-led unipolar world. The future will likely be multipolar and regional, with powers like the US and China dominating their respective spheres. A country's strength will depend on its internal health (education, finances) rather than global dominance.
The future world order hinges on the alignment of the Global South. Alexander Stubb argues that Western powers must use "values-based realism" and "dignified foreign policy" to win over key nations like India, Brazil, and South Africa to a rules-based system, as they are the decisive players in the struggle.