Discord filed for an IPO, but its current valuation of $7-8B is significantly lower than its 2021 peak of $15B and the $10-12B Microsoft acquisition offer it rejected. This illustrates the market's impact on high-flying private valuations and the risk of turning down acquisitions.
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An IPO at a valuation that's flat compared to the last private round suggests the company is distressed. It implies the private markets are tapped out and the company is being forced to go public out of a desperate need for capital, rather than from a position of strength.
Top-tier private companies like Stripe and Databricks are actively choosing to delay IPOs, viewing the public market as an inferior "product." With access to cheaper private capital and freedom from quarterly scrutiny and activist investors, staying private offers a better environment to build long-term value.
In the current market, companies prioritize liquidity and public market access over protecting previous private valuations. A lower IPO price is no longer seen as a failure but as a necessary market correction to move forward and ensure survival.
To prepare for its IPO, Discord is moving beyond its primary 'Nitro' subscription revenue. The company is adding new advertising formats and a virtual currency ('Orbs') to boost revenue and de-risk its business model from dependency on a single income stream.
Private market valuations are benchmarked against public multiples. Currently, public SaaS firms with 30% growth trade at 15-20x revenue, twice the historical average. If this 'bedrock price' reverts to its 7-8x mean, it will trigger a cascade of valuation drops across the private markets.
Despite initial excitement, the market's enthusiasm for IPOs has cooled significantly. Many newly public tech companies, including high-quality ones like Figma, are trading well below their peaks or even their IPO price, indicating the floodgates for public exits have not truly reopened.
The current IPO market is bifurcated. Investors are unenthusiastic about solid, VC-backed companies in the $5-$15B valuation range, leading to poor post-IPO performance. However, there is immense pent-up demand for a handful of mega-private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI.
To generate returns on a $10B acquisition, a PE firm needs a $25B exit, which often means an IPO. They must underwrite this IPO at a discount to public comps, despite having paid a 30% premium to acquire the company, creating a significant initial value gap to overcome from day one.
Companies like SpaceX and OpenAI command massive private valuations partly because access to their shares is scarce. An IPO removes this barrier, making the stock universally available. This loss of scarcity value can lead to a valuation decline, a pattern seen in other assets like crypto when they became easily accessible via ETFs.
The process of going public establishes a clear market price for a company, an act of 'price discovery.' This transparency, combined with the discipline of quarterly reporting, can make a company a more attractive and straightforward acquisition target, as seen with Slack.