A METI official outlines a philosophy of 'peace through economic strength.' The objective is not to develop economic statecraft to weaken adversaries, but rather to enhance Japan's own technological superiority and supply chain autonomy. This strength, they believe, enables Japan to maintain better relationships and engage more freely in the global market.
Politicians predictably declare initiatives for domestic production of critical goods like munitions or rare earths when dependencies are exposed. However, these declarations rarely translate into effective action, suggesting we must learn to manage economic entanglement as a form of mutual deterrence rather than wish it away.
Instead of a total ban, a more strategic approach is to "slow ball" an adversary like China by providing them with just enough technology. This keeps them dependent on foreign suppliers and disincentivizes the massive state investment required to develop their own superior, independent solutions.
The concept of 'weaponized interdependence,' highlighted by China's use of export controls, is driving Asian nations like Japan, India, and South Korea to implement economic security acts. This shifts investment toward domestic supply chains in critical minerals, semiconductors, and defense, creating state-backed opportunities.
The term "economic security" has evolved. FDR used it to mean a social safety net. The Clinton administration defined it as safe global free trade. Today, it's viewed through a national security lens, treating economic and technological strength as a core component of national power, similar to military or diplomacy.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) categorizes sectors to apply targeted policies. 'Green' areas have lost supply chain autonomy and require diversification. 'Blue' areas possess technological superiority and need control (e.g., export controls). 'Red' areas face disruptive innovation and demand proactive strategic investment.
Unlike military intelligence, the information needed for economic security—identifying strategic sectors and necessary actions—comes from businesses, researchers, and academia. Recognizing this, Japan's METI is building a global 'community' to ensure a flow of high-quality, real-world intelligence to inform its policies, as this expertise is not found inside government.
Under 'Sanae-nomics,' Japan's growth strategy is pivoting towards sectors linked to national security. This includes not only defense and heavy industries but also advanced technology like AI, robotics, and quantum computing, as well as energy and food security. These areas are expected to be core beneficiaries of the new administration's industrial policy.
Japan sustains a debt-to-GDP ratio that would cause collapse elsewhere due to its unique culture. Citizens patriotically buy and hold government debt, preventing the market panic that would typically ensue. This cultural factor allows it to delay an economic reckoning that seems inevitable by standard metrics.
To gain corporate buy-in for its security agenda, Japan's government combines protective measures like export controls with promotional incentives like R&D support. This 'run faster' strategy reframes national security regulations from being a restrictive cost into a direct opportunity for innovation and expansion in strategic sectors.
Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) defines its economic security strategy through two core pillars. 'Strategic indispensability' means possessing superior, leverageable technology that others need. 'Autonomy' refers to having resilient supply chains for critical goods like energy and food. This dual framework guides their national policy.