By measuring success on 'last lead source,' the company was incentivized to pour money into paid search for product trials—a clear final touchpoint. This model blinded them to the higher value of other lead types and actively discouraged investment in demand creation activities that build brand and generate higher-quality leads.
The company's overall win rate was low (6-7%) and decreasing. Analysis showed this decline mirrored a drop in marketing 'signals' (e.g., event attendance, content downloads) before an opportunity was created. This provided a clear data link between mid-funnel marketing activities and sales success.
Standard attribution models, even multi-touch, fail to credit influential, non-clickable touchpoints like a child watching a Netflix show that inspires a purchase. This "Hot Wheels Problem" highlights the need to account for view-through attribution and the full, often hidden, customer journey.
Data shows that adding brand marketing to a performance-driven engine can increase median ROI by 90%. The persistent tension between brand and performance stems from short-termism and the allure of easily measured clicks, creating a false dichotomy between two essential functions.
A common attribution error is assigning all sales to paid marketing activities. In reality, most brands have a strong "baseline"—sales that would occur even without marketing. Accurate measurement requires modeling this baseline first, then attributing only the incremental lift from campaigns.
Effective demand generation is a barbell, requiring strong top-of-funnel brand investment to create awareness and great bottom-of-funnel product marketing to convert interest. Viewing performance marketing as a standalone function and funding it in isolation is like "throwing money at a problem but not solving it."
Relying solely on short-term performance marketing becomes unsustainable. Brand investment acts as the fuel for these channels; cutting it means you must spend progressively more just to maintain the same results, leading to a negative spiral.
Data reveals a 'doom loop' of diminishing returns for companies over-relying on performance marketing. Brand investment acts as a multiplier, improving conversion and efficiency. Campaigns that combine brand and performance see a 90% higher ROI, while performance marketing for a weak brand yields a negative 40% ROI.
The company heavily invested in product trials via paid search, but analysis revealed these leads had a mere 5% win rate and the lowest average contract value. This demonstrated that their primary lead source was also their least efficient for generating actual revenue.
Paid search should not be categorized as a marketing or brand-building activity. It is a sales function that captures existing intent, acting as a "toll booth" for demand created elsewhere. This reframing clarifies its role in the marketing mix and prevents over-crediting it for business growth via last-touch attribution.
Solely judging marketing by last-touch attribution creates a false reality. This narrow metric consistently favors predictable channels like search and email, discouraging investment in brand building and creative storytelling that influence buyers throughout their journey. It's a losing battle if it's the only basis for decision-making.