Standard attribution models, even multi-touch, fail to credit influential, non-clickable touchpoints like a child watching a Netflix show that inspires a purchase. This "Hot Wheels Problem" highlights the need to account for view-through attribution and the full, often hidden, customer journey.

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Don't dismiss a channel like TV as unsuitable for direct response. By acknowledging the common user behavior of dual-screening (watching TV while using a phone), you can create innovative hand-offs like "send to phone" or QR codes. This turns a passive viewing experience into an interactive conversion funnel.

Instead of focusing solely on conversion rates, measure 'engagement quality'—metrics that signal user confidence, like dwell time, scroll depth, and journey progression. The philosophy is that if you successfully help users understand the content and feel confident, conversions will naturally follow as a positive side effect.

New measurement tools are moving beyond probabilistic models (guessing based on IP/device) to deterministic view-through attribution. By using first-party data like platform logins, marketers can now directly match an ad impression to a purchase, solving a major measurement challenge.

Due to signal loss from cookie deprecation, no single model like MTA or MMM is sufficient. The new gold standard is using all available algorithms together in a machine learning framework, allowing them to influence each other for a more accurate ROI picture.

A common attribution error is assigning all sales to paid marketing activities. In reality, most brands have a strong "baseline"—sales that would occur even without marketing. Accurate measurement requires modeling this baseline first, then attributing only the incremental lift from campaigns.

To evaluate AI's role in building relationships, marketers must look beyond transactional KPIs. Leading indicators of success include sustained engagement, customers volunteering more information, and recommending the experience to others. These metrics quantify brand trust and empathy—proving the brand is earning belief, not just attention.

The middle of the marketing funnel is compressing as AI provides answers directly on the search results page. This drastically reduces website clicks, forcing marketers to rethink traffic-based goals and find new ways to engage customers off-site.

Modern marketing relevance requires moving beyond traditional demographic segments. The focus should be on real-time signals of customer intent, like clicks and searches. This reframes the customer from a static identity to a dynamic one, enabling more timely and relevant engagement.

AI's growth is hampered by a measurement problem, much like early digital advertising. The industry's acceleration won't come from better AI models alone, but from building a 'boring' infrastructure, like Comscore did for ads, to prove the tools actually work.

Solely judging marketing by last-touch attribution creates a false reality. This narrow metric consistently favors predictable channels like search and email, discouraging investment in brand building and creative storytelling that influence buyers throughout their journey. It's a losing battle if it's the only basis for decision-making.

The 'Hot Wheels Problem': Measuring Unclickable Influence | RiffOn