Instead of selling software to traditional industries, a more defensible approach is to build vertically integrated companies. This involves acquiring or starting a business in a non-sexy industry (e.g., a law firm, hospital) and rebuilding its entire operational stack with AI at its core, something a pure software vendor cannot do.

As startups build on commoditized AI platforms like GPT, product differentiation becomes less of a moat. Success now hinges on cracking growth faster than rivals. The new competitive advantages are proprietary data for training models and the deep domain expertise required to find unique growth levers.

As AI infrastructure giants become government-backed utilities, their investment appeal diminishes like banks after 2008. The next wave of value creation will come from stagnant, existing businesses that adopt AI to unlock new margins, leveraging their established brands and distribution channels rather than building new rails from scratch.

The AI revolution may favor incumbents, not just startups. Large companies possess vast, proprietary datasets. If they quickly fine-tune custom LLMs with this data, they can build a formidable competitive moat that an AI startup, starting from scratch, cannot easily replicate.

Unlike mobile or internet shifts that created openings for startups, AI is an "accelerating technology." Large companies can integrate it quickly, closing the competitive window for new entrants much faster than in previous platform shifts. The moat is no longer product execution but customer insight.

The true enterprise value of AI lies not in consuming third-party models, but in building internal capabilities to diffuse intelligence throughout the organization. This means creating proprietary "AI factories" rather than just using external tools and admiring others' success.

AI favors incumbents more than startups. While everyone builds on similar models, true network effects come from proprietary data and consumer distribution, both of which incumbents own. Startups are left with narrow problems, but high-quality incumbents are moving fast enough to capture these opportunities.

Oren Zeev argues against the narrative that AI will kill all incumbents. He believes businesses with operational complexity, deep data moats, and strong distribution are not easily disrupted. These companies are more likely to leverage AI to their advantage, while simpler software companies are at greater risk.

Unlike previous tech waves, AI's core requirements—massive datasets, capital for compute, and vast distribution—are already controlled by today's largest tech companies. This gives incumbents a powerful advantage, making AI a technology that could sustain their dominance rather than disrupt them.