The West sees China's demographic crisis as a fatal flaw. However, China's leadership may view the loss of hundreds of millions of elderly citizens as a necessary, if brutal, transition to a high-tech economy that increases per capita GDP.

Nations experiencing rapid population decline may see a limited window to act militarily against neighbors who are declining even faster. This creates a "use it or lose it" dynamic for their military-age population, potentially increasing state-on-state conflicts in the 21st century.

A potential invasion of Taiwan by China is less likely due to internal military purges and dissent than to US military posturing. An authoritarian leader like Xi Jinping cannot launch a complex invasion if he doesn't trust his own generals, making domestic instability a powerful, albeit unintentional, deterrent.

China's showcase of advanced military hardware, like its new aircraft carrier, is primarily a psychological tool. The strategy is to build a military so 'forbiddingly huge' that the US would hesitate to engage, allowing China to achieve goals like reabsorbing Taiwan without fighting. This suggests their focus is on perceived power to deter intervention.

China's immense state capacity allows for rapid infrastructure development but also enables disastrous national policies like the one-child policy or Zero-COVID. Unlike the deliberative U.S. system, China's efficiency means that when it goes off track, it can go catastrophically off track before any course correction is possible.

China's "engineering state" mindset extends beyond physical projects to social engineering. The Communist Party treats its own people as a resource to be moved or molded—whether displacing a million for a dam or enforcing the one-child policy—viewing society as just another material to achieve its objectives.

A democratic nation's ability to wage war is limited less by its military capacity and more by its own internal moral compass. The potential for domestic and global outcry over civilian casualties acts as a powerful deterrent, preventing the full use of force and creating strategic stalemates.

While endless analysis is spent on Taiwan's will to fight, China's is rarely questioned. A significant vulnerability for the CCP is the prospect of sacrificing a generation of only children in a war over Taiwan, which could be perceived domestically as a 'vanity project' and trigger immense social backlash.

Xi Jinping's primary goal is CCP control. A failed invasion of Taiwan resulting in tens of thousands of casualties from a military composed almost entirely of only-children could trigger societal unrest, destabilizing the Communist Party's grip on power. This makes a high-casualty war a huge gamble.