Unlike their first company Meraki, the Samsara founders entered the physical operations industry as novices. Their conviction came from identifying compounding technology waves—connectivity, compute, and sensors—and trusting these would unlock future value, even if the exact path was unclear.
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Shure's founders pivoted back to their original EOR concept, which failed years prior due to a lack of automation infrastructure. The recent maturity of AI agents and stablecoin rails made the initial vision feasible, showing that timing and technological readiness are critical for an idea's success.
During a fundamental technology shift like the current AI wave, traditional market size analysis is pointless because new markets and behaviors are being created. Investors should de-emphasize TAM and instead bet on founders who have a clear, convicted vision for how the world will change.
Investors often reject ideas in markets where previous companies failed, a bias they call "scar tissue." This creates an opportunity for founders who can identify a key change—like new AI technology or shifting consumer behavior—that makes a previously impossible idea now viable.
A full understanding of a complex industry's challenges can be paralyzing. The founder of Buildots admitted he wouldn't have started the company if he knew how hard it would be. Naivety allows founders to tackle enormous problems that experienced operators might avoid entirely.
AI tools drastically reduce the time and expertise needed to enter new domains. This allows startups to pivot their entire company quickly to capitalize on shifting investor sentiment and market narratives, making them more agile in a hype-driven environment where narrative alignment attracts capital.
Early in a technology cycle like the web or AI, successful founders must be technical geniuses to build necessary infrastructure. As the ecosystem matures with tools like AWS or open-source models, the advantage shifts to product geniuses who can build great user experiences without deep technical expertise.
Unlike SaaS startups focused on finding product-market fit (market risk), deep tech ventures tackle immense technical challenges. If they succeed, they enter massive, pre-existing trillion-dollar markets like energy or shipping where demand is virtually guaranteed, eliminating market risk entirely.
When evaluating revolutionary ideas, traditional Total Addressable Market (TAM) analysis is useless. VCs should instead bet on founders with a "world-bending vision" capable of inducing a new market, not just capturing an existing one. Have the humility to admit you can't predict market size and instead back the visionary founder.
Many iconic founders, like Southwest's Herb Kelleher, were beginners in their industries. This lack of experience was an advantage, freeing them from established dogmas and allowing them to approach problems with a fresh perspective. They built unconventional models that incumbents dismissed or couldn't replicate.
Periods of intense technological disruption, like the current AI wave, destabilize established hierarchies and biases. This creates a unique opportunity for founders from non-traditional backgrounds who may be more resilient and can identify market needs overlooked by incumbents.
