The Froyo industry's previous decline wasn't due to a lack of demand, but a surplus of supply. The business model—low-cost self-serve machines and minimal labor needs—was so attractive and easy to replicate that it led to oversaturation. The industry essentially became a victim of its own success.
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Entrepreneurs who thrived during past downturns (like 2008) often become complacent. With higher overhead and a more comfortable lifestyle, they are less willing to do the hard, uncomfortable work required to win in a new down market, creating an opportunity for hungrier competitors.
Established industries often operate like cartels with unwritten rules, such as avoiding aggressive marketing. New entrants gain a significant edge by deliberately violating these norms, forcing incumbents to react to a game they don't want to play. This creates differentiation beyond the core product or service.
Intense competition forces companies to innovate their products and marketing more aggressively. This rivalry validates the market's potential, accelerates its growth, and ultimately benefits the entire ecosystem and its customers, rather than being a purely zero-sum game.
The slow growth of public SaaS isn't just an execution failure; it's a structural problem. We created so many VC-backed companies that markets became saturated, blocking adjacent expansion opportunities and creating a 'Total Addressable Market (TAM) trap'.
Entrepreneurs often chase trending markets. However, even a market in slight decline, like craft beer, can be enormous ($28 billion). Capturing a tiny fraction (e.g., 0.05%) of such a market can still result in a nine-figure business, making it a viable opportunity.
Sonder's bankruptcy wasn't due to its core idea of a standardized home rental, which was sound. The failure stemmed from raising too much venture capital ($680M), which created immense pressure for hyper-growth. This forced the company to sign unprofitable leases, proving a good business can be destroyed by the wrong funding model and unrealistic expectations.
Driven by demands for convenience, contactless culture, and automation, businesses are moving beyond traditional service counters. The rise of vending machines for diverse products like prescriptions, cars, and champagne signifies a broader economic shift toward a self-service "kiosk economy."
The belief that you must find an untapped, 'blue ocean' market is a fallacy. In a connected world, every opportunity is visible and becomes saturated quickly. Instead of looking for a secret angle, focus on self-awareness and superior execution within an existing market.
Rapidly scaling companies can have fantastic unit economics but face constant insolvency risk. The cash required for advance hiring and inventory means you're perpetually on the edge of collapse, even while growing revenue by triple digits. You are going out of business every day.
Seeing an existing successful business is validation, not a deterrent. By copying their current model, you start where they are today, bypassing their years of risky experimentation and learning. The market is large enough for multiple winners.
