Because AI is framed as a systemic national security issue—an arms race with China—the US government is unlikely to let the industry fail. Individual companies might stumble, but the government will likely step in to prop them up or facilitate asset sales, creating an implicit taxpayer-funded backstop.

When commercial insurers cancelled war risk coverage for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the US government stepped in to provide political risk insurance. This ensures the flow of global trade and energy, demonstrating a powerful, non-obvious tool of economic statecraft.

Following attacks on Amazon's Gulf infrastructure, war risk insurance costs have surged 1900%, with coverage limits plummeting. Since financing for projects like data centers requires insurance, this market freeze acts as a financial choke point, halting new construction in high-risk regions regardless of a company's capital.

The consistent history of government bailouts in the airline industry incentivizes risky financial behavior. CEOs know they can operate without a financial safety net because taxpayer money will likely rescue them in a crisis.

A potential off-ramp for the conflict is not military victory but a bureaucratic financial solution. By massively increasing the US Development Finance Corporation’s political risk insurance limit, the US could underwrite maritime shipping, incentivizing transit despite the military risk.

Iran effectively weaponized the Strait of Hormuz not with mines, but by creating enough uncertainty to make UK-based insurance companies pull out. This demonstrates how financial systems can be leveraged as powerful geopolitical choke points.

The complete withdrawal of key competitors like Turkish Airways and Pegasus from the Tel Aviv market is a permanent structural change, not a temporary wartime disruption. This exit solidifies El Al's market share and pricing power for the foreseeable future, even after the current conflict subsides.

El Al leveraged windfall profits from its temporary monopoly to buy nine aircraft it previously leased. This shift from leasing to ownership provides a permanent, long-term financial benefit, reducing costs and strengthening the balance sheet well beyond the current conflict.

The Israeli government mandates an exceptionally high level of security for El Al, including passenger interrogations. While expensive (with costs shared by the government), this creates a powerful brand differentiator built on safety that other airlines cannot easily replicate, reinforcing customer trust.