A Senate bill, altered from its original intent, aims to ban interest payments on stablecoins. Supported by banking associations, this move is designed to eliminate competition from crypto, solidifying the traditional banking sector's monopoly on financial services under the guise of stability.
The U.S. is approving stablecoins for a strategic reason: they require reserves, which must be U.S. treasuries. This policy creates a massive, new, non-traditional buyer for government debt, helping to finance enormous and growing fiscal deficits with a structural source of demand.
By creating a regulatory framework that requires private stablecoins to be backed 1-to-1 by U.S. Treasuries, the government can prop up demand for its ever-increasing debt. This strategy is less about embracing financial innovation and more about extending the U.S. dollar's lifespan as the global reserve currency.
Maja Vujinovic posits that Gary Gensler, despite his pro-crypto past, was strategically positioned by banks to slow innovation. This regulatory friction gave traditional financial institutions the necessary time to understand the technology and formulate their own digital asset strategies before competing.
A potential future government strategy to manage borrowing costs involves creating a special class of T-bills exclusively for stablecoin issuers. These would carry an artificially low yield, preventing issuers from profiting while providing the government with cheap capital.
In a novel attempt to delay a debt crisis, policymakers are pushing for regulations that would force stablecoin issuers to back their digital dollars one-to-one with U.S. Treasuries. This cleverly creates a new, captive international market for government debt, helping to prop up the system.
Libra's failure was not technical. The U.S. government intentionally blocked it, recognizing stablecoins as a way to extend the dollar's global dominance. It refused to let a private company control this new financial power, especially with a multi-currency basket.
For stablecoin companies like Tether seeking legitimacy in the US market, the simplest path is to back their assets with US treasuries. This aligns their interests with the US government, turning a potential adversary into a welcome buyer of national debt, even if it means lower returns compared to riskier assets.
While stablecoins gain attention, tokenized deposits offer similar benefits—like on-chain transactions—but operate within the existing, trusted regulatory banking framework. As they are simply bank liabilities on a blockchain, they may become a more palatable alternative for corporates seeking efficiency without regulatory uncertainty.
A regulatory settlement forced crypto firms to pay "rewards" instead of "interest" on stablecoins. Coinbase is exploiting this semantic difference to offer a 4% yield, creating a product that functions like a high-yield checking account but without the traditional banking regulatory burdens. This is a backdoor disruption of consumer banking.
The high profits enjoyed by stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle are temporary. Major financial institutions (Visa, JPMorgan) will eventually launch their own stablecoins, not as primary profit centers, but as low-cost tools to acquire and retain customers. This will drive margins down for the entire industry.