By creating a regulatory framework that requires private stablecoins to be backed 1-to-1 by U.S. Treasuries, the government can prop up demand for its ever-increasing debt. This strategy is less about embracing financial innovation and more about extending the U.S. dollar's lifespan as the global reserve currency.
When national debt grows too large, an economy enters "fiscal dominance." The central bank loses its ability to manage the economy, as raising rates causes hyperinflation to cover debt payments while lowering them creates massive asset bubbles, leaving no good options.
A top Putin advisor's claim that the US is using crypto to devalue its debt is not genuine concern. It is a calculated geopolitical move to publicly discredit the dollar while promoting the alternative gold-backed monetary system that Russia and China are actively building together.
A condition called "fiscal dominance," where massive government debt exists, prevents the central bank from raising interest rates to cool speculation. This forces a flood of cheap money into the market, which seeks high returns in narrative-driven assets like AI because safer options can't keep pace with inflation.
To extend the solvency of U.S. debt, create a one-to-one stablecoin backed by treasuries. This would grant global citizens, particularly in countries with unstable currencies, a direct way to save in a dollar-denominated asset. This new demand could lengthen the runway for U.S. fiscal policy.
While private crypto has scams, the true systemic risk is Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Being programmable and centralized, they give governments the power to monitor, block, and control every citizen's transactions, creating an infrastructure for authoritarian control under the guise of progress.
For hundreds of millions in developing nations, stablecoins are not an investment vehicle but a capital preservation tool. Their core value is providing a simple hedge against high-inflation local currencies by pegging to the USD, a use case that far outweighs the desire for interest yield in those markets.
In a novel attempt to delay a debt crisis, policymakers are pushing for regulations that would force stablecoin issuers to back their digital dollars one-to-one with U.S. Treasuries. This cleverly creates a new, captive international market for government debt, helping to prop up the system.
For stablecoin companies like Tether seeking legitimacy in the US market, the simplest path is to back their assets with US treasuries. This aligns their interests with the US government, turning a potential adversary into a welcome buyer of national debt, even if it means lower returns compared to riskier assets.
The U.S. government's debt is so large that the Federal Reserve is trapped. Raising interest rates would trigger a government default, while cutting them would further inflate the 'everything bubble.' Either path leads to a systemic crisis, a situation economists call 'fiscal dominance.'
The high profits enjoyed by stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle are temporary. Major financial institutions (Visa, JPMorgan) will eventually launch their own stablecoins, not as primary profit centers, but as low-cost tools to acquire and retain customers. This will drive margins down for the entire industry.