Investors often mistake a large industry for a single, winner-take-all market. A vertical like legal tech isn't one market to be won; it's a $500 billion industry. Just as the legal profession has many specializations, the tech serving it will produce dozens of successful, specialized companies.

Related Insights

Instead of selling software to traditional industries, a more defensible approach is to build vertically integrated companies. This involves acquiring or starting a business in a non-sexy industry (e.g., a law firm, hospital) and rebuilding its entire operational stack with AI at its core, something a pure software vendor cannot do.

While many investors hunt for pure monopolies, most tech markets naturally support a handful of large players in an oligopoly structure. Markets like payments (Stripe, Adyen, PayPal) demonstrate that multiple large, successful companies can coexist, a crucial distinction for market analysis and investment strategy.

During YC, Paul Graham advised PointOne that the biggest opportunity wasn't selling tools to law firms, but becoming an "AI law firm." He hypothesized that AI's efficiency would create a winner-take-all market, consolidating the entire legal industry into a single entity.

Obsessing over creating a new market category is often a mistake. Data shows the vast majority of successful public tech companies compete within established categories. It's more effective to get "invited to the party" by using a known category label and then winning with a sharp, differentiated value proposition.

AI is predicted to be the primary catalyst for a dramatic consolidation of the legal market. Firms that effectively leverage technology will gain significant competitive advantages, leading to market share capture and private equity-backed roll-up strategies. The landscape of 200 top US law firms could shrink to just 12-20 dominant players.

In specialized AI verticals like legal tech, market dynamics are extremely skewed. The top player is expected to capture 90% of the market, leaving scraps for all other competitors. This necessitates an aggressive growth strategy focused solely on achieving leadership, as there's no prize for second place.

YC Partner Harsh Taggar suggests a durable competitive moat for startups exists in niche, B2B verticals like auditing or insurance. The top engineering talent at large labs like OpenAI or Anthropic are unlikely to be passionate about building these specific applications, leaving the market open for focused startups.

Conventional venture capital wisdom of 'winner-take-all' may not apply to AI applications. The market is expanding so rapidly that it can sustain multiple, fast-growing, highly valuable companies, each capturing a significant niche. For VCs, this means huge returns don't necessarily require backing a monopoly.

Don't underestimate the size of AI opportunities. Verticals like "AI for code" or "AI for legal" are not niche markets that will be dominated by a few players. They are entire new industries that will support dozens of large, successful companies, much like the broader software industry.

The legal profession's core functions—researching case law, drafting contracts, and reviewing documents—are based on a large, structured corpus of text. This makes them ideal use cases for Large Language Models, fueling a massive wave of investment into legal AI companies.