When evaluating AI startups, don't just consider the current product landscape. Instead, visualize the future state of giants like OpenAI as multi-trillion dollar companies. Their "sphere of influence" will be vast. The best opportunities are "second-order" companies operating in niches these giants are unlikely to touch.

Instead of selling software to traditional industries, a more defensible approach is to build vertically integrated companies. This involves acquiring or starting a business in a non-sexy industry (e.g., a law firm, hospital) and rebuilding its entire operational stack with AI at its core, something a pure software vendor cannot do.

The primary economic incentive driving AI development is not replacing software, but automating the vastly larger human labor market. This includes high-skill jobs like accountants, lawyers, and auditors, representing a multi-trillion dollar opportunity that dwarfs the SaaS industry and dictates where investment will flow.

The AI industry is not a winner-take-all market. Instead, it's a dynamic "leapfrogging" race where competitors like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic constantly surpass each other with new models. This prevents a single monopoly and encourages specialization, with different models excelling in areas like coding or current events.

Traditional software required deep vertical focus because building unique UIs for each use case was complex. AI agents solve this. Since the interface is primarily a prompt box, a company can serve a broad horizontal market from the beginning without the massive overhead of building distinct, vertical-specific product experiences.

For venture capitalists investing in AI, the primary success indicator is massive Total Addressable Market (TAM) expansion. Traditional concerns like entry price become secondary when a company is fundamentally redefining its market size. Without this expansion, the investment is not worthwhile in the current AI landscape.

Large platforms focus on massive opportunities right in front of them ('gold bricks at their feet'). They consciously ignore even valuable markets that require more effort ('gold bricks 100 feet away'). This strategic neglect creates defensible spaces for startups in those niche areas.

The value generated by 30 million developers worldwide is estimated at $3 trillion. AI tools that augment or disrupt this work are tapping into a market equivalent to the GDP of a major economy, making it the first truly massive market for AI.

Conventional venture capital wisdom of 'winner-take-all' may not apply to AI applications. The market is expanding so rapidly that it can sustain multiple, fast-growing, highly valuable companies, each capturing a significant niche. For VCs, this means huge returns don't necessarily require backing a monopoly.