During YC, Paul Graham advised PointOne that the biggest opportunity wasn't selling tools to law firms, but becoming an "AI law firm." He hypothesized that AI's efficiency would create a winner-take-all market, consolidating the entire legal industry into a single entity.
Startups are increasingly using AI to handle legal and accounting tasks themselves, avoiding high professional fees. This signals a significant market need for tools that formalize and support this DIY approach, especially as startups scale and require more robust solutions for investors.
Instead of selling software to traditional industries, a more defensible approach is to build vertically integrated companies. This involves acquiring or starting a business in a non-sexy industry (e.g., a law firm, hospital) and rebuilding its entire operational stack with AI at its core, something a pure software vendor cannot do.
Founders are stuck in a SaaS mindset, selling tools to existing service providers. The bigger opportunity is to build new, AI-first service companies (e.g., accounting, legal) that use AI to deliver a superior end-to-end solution directly to customers.
Harvey AI's co-founder predicts AI will allow law firms to break the traditional billable-hour model. This shift will enable them to operate at a much larger scale with software-like margins, fundamentally changing the industry's structure and creating massive winners.
Instead of selling AI co-pilots, legal tech startup Crosby operates as a full-stack law firm using AI internally. This model allows them to continuously re-orchestrate workflows between human lawyers and AI as models improve. This captures the entire value of automation rather than just the limited margin from selling a software tool to other firms.
AI is predicted to be the primary catalyst for a dramatic consolidation of the legal market. Firms that effectively leverage technology will gain significant competitive advantages, leading to market share capture and private equity-backed roll-up strategies. The landscape of 200 top US law firms could shrink to just 12-20 dominant players.
To penetrate tech-resistant markets like personal injury law, the winning model is not selling AI software but offering an AI-powered service. Finch acts as an outsourced, AI-augmented paralegal team, an easier value proposition for firms to adopt than training existing staff on new, complex tools.
In specialized AI verticals like legal tech, market dynamics are extremely skewed. The top player is expected to capture 90% of the market, leaving scraps for all other competitors. This necessitates an aggressive growth strategy focused solely on achieving leadership, as there's no prize for second place.
Don't underestimate the size of AI opportunities. Verticals like "AI for code" or "AI for legal" are not niche markets that will be dominated by a few players. They are entire new industries that will support dozens of large, successful companies, much like the broader software industry.
YC Partner Harsh Taggar notes a strategic shift where new AI companies are not just selling software to incumbents (e.g., an AI tool for insurance). Instead, they are building "AI-native full stack" businesses that operate as the incumbent themselves (e.g., an AI-powered insurance brokerage).