AI's impact will disproportionately affect knowledge workers in developed nations. Concurrently, it offers nations in the Global South an opportunity to bypass traditional development stages by adopting AI tools, potentially rebalancing the global economic order in a way similar to the mobile phone revolution.

If AGI is concentrated in a few US companies, other nations could lose their economic sovereignty. When American AGI can produce goods far cheaper than local human labor, economies like the UK's could collapse. They would become economically dependent "client states," reliant on American technology for almost all production, with wealth accruing to Silicon Valley.

Relying solely on imported AI technology from superpowers like the US and China is a path to economic and political dependency. Governments must foster local AI innovation and infrastructure to maintain economic sovereignty and global competitiveness.

Chinese policymakers champion AI as a key driver of economic productivity but appear to be underestimating its potential for social upheaval. There is little indication they are planning for the mass displacement of the gig economy workforce, who will be the first casualties of automation. This focus on technological gains over social safety nets creates a significant future political risk.

AI creates a stark economic divergence. Nations with advanced industrial manufacturing (e.g., Taiwan, Netherlands) will experience massive growth by supplying AI's physical needs. In contrast, knowledge-based economies will face mass disruption as white-collar jobs are automated in a winner-take-all dynamic.

Like the Industrial Revolution, AI will ultimately be a net creator of jobs by enabling new business models. The critical societal risk is the interim period where job losses are immediate, but the creation of new industries lags, potentially leading to social unrest and political backlash.

The West's fear of AI contrasts sharply with the East's (e.g., China) embrace of it. Societies that have achieved a high standard of living perceive new technologies as a threat to their stability and prosperity. Conversely, rapidly developing nations see technology primarily as a tool for immense gain.

For Chinese policymakers, AI is more than a productivity tool; it represents a crucial opportunity to escape the middle-income trap. They are betting that leadership in AI can fuel the innovation needed to transition from a labor-intensive economy to a developed one, avoiding the stagnation that has plagued other emerging markets.

Hastings expresses skepticism that middle-power nations can meaningfully compete in AI, even with dedicated national strategies. He compares it to Argentina trying to industrialize against the British Empire, suggesting the power imbalance is too great. Their best bet is to align and hope for favorable treaties.