Every 10 days the Strait of Hormuz is closed, a 200-million-barrel physical gap is created in the global oil flow. This is not a temporary kink but a massive hole in the supply chain that will take months to resolve and normalize, even long after transit resumes.

The 20 million barrels of oil flowing daily through the Strait of Hormuz represent 20% of global supply. A blockade constitutes a disruption four times larger than the Iranian Revolution or Yom Kippur War embargoes, with no simple replacement.

The ongoing conflict has taken 10% of global oil production offline, a supply disruption of a magnitude unseen by economists in at least 20 years. This is a pure supply-side shock, distinct from demand-side shocks like COVID, creating unique and severe inflationary pressures for the global economy.

While many fear production shutdowns, a more significant and probable risk is a logistical shock from shipping disruptions. Even modest delays in tanker transit times could effectively remove millions of barrels per day from the market, causing a significant price spike without a single well being shut down.

The physical impact of a supply disruption isn't immediate. It takes about two weeks for tankers from the Middle East to reach Asia and over three for Europe. This lag means consumers and industries only start feeling the actual shortage weeks after the event, despite immediate price reactions.

The conflict's primary impact on oil is not that supply is offline, but that its transport through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. This distinction is key to understanding price scenarios, as supply exists but cannot be delivered.

A colonial-era demarcation still defines oil markets. Asia ('East of Suez') relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil and feels disruptions almost immediately. Europe and the Americas ('West of Suez') are more detached, experiencing the crisis with a significant time lag.

Despite holding 65-70 days of crude oil reserves, Asian governments and industries begin rationing energy as soon as supply chains tighten. This preemptive action means the economic pain of a disruption is felt much sooner than official inventory levels would suggest, making the reserves a poor gauge of immediate impact.

The full impact of the Hormuz closure hasn't hit yet. An "air pocket" in global tanker supply is developing. When tankers that departed pre-conflict finally arrive at their destinations, Asian inventories will begin drawing down at an unprecedented 10-15 million barrels per day, triggering a severe, delayed price shock.