People feel confident if each step of a plan seems likely (e.g., 70% chance). However, the true odds are the product of each step's probability. Three 70% steps result in only a 34% overall chance, mathematically explaining why many well-laid plans fail.
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Contrary to 'positive thinking,' this method involves identifying everything that could go wrong for each step required to succeed. By proactively creating solutions for these risks, you significantly increase your overall probability of success and de-risk your goals.
For low-probability events, the key is to acknowledge unfavorable long-term odds while maintaining absolute belief in winning the single attempt at hand. This mindset accepts failure as a statistical likelihood but separates it from the possibility of success in the present moment.
Young dreamed of being an NFL quarterback, a goal with a sub-1% chance of success. His father supported this but insisted he also create a high-probability 'plan': becoming a lawyer. This dual-track approach grounds ambition in reality, providing a viable path forward regardless of whether the long-shot dream materializes.
For an event with a 1-in-N chance of happening, if you try N times, the probability of it occurring at least once is roughly 63%. While this highlights the danger of repeated low-probability risks, it also applies positively. Consistently performing small, beneficial actions can compound to make eventual success almost a mathematical certainty.
Top tennis players like Rafael Nadal win only ~55% of total points but triumph by winning the *important* ones. This analogy illustrates that successful investing isn't about being right every time. It's about consistently tilting small odds in your favor across many bets, like a casino, to ensure long-term success.
A common leadership mistake is setting impossible goals. This often stems from a flawed planning process that doesn't clearly distinguish between aspirational "stretch" goals and committed "planned" goals. Without this clarity, especially in financial planning, teams are set up for failure.
The phrase "I make my own luck" is a misnomer. Life outcomes are a function of two things: luck (uncontrollable) and decision quality. While you can't control luck, you can consistently make better decisions that increase the probability of favorable outcomes over time.
Instead of aiming for their quota, elite salespeople plan to significantly exceed it. This 'overplanning' builds a necessary buffer or cushion for the inevitable deals that fall through or get delayed, ensuring they still hit their target at minimum.
A common investor mistake is underwriting a deal that requires 15-20 different initiatives to go perfectly. A superior approach concentrates on 3-5 key value drivers, recognizing that the probability of many independent events all succeeding is mathematically negligible, thus providing a more realistic path to a strong return.
It's a fallacy that a 10x goal is proportionally harder than a 10% improvement. Both require overcoming inertia and facing significant challenges. Since substantial effort is required either way, aiming for the bigger, more transformative goal is often the better strategy.
