For an event with a 1-in-N chance of happening, if you try N times, the probability of it occurring at least once is roughly 63%. While this highlights the danger of repeated low-probability risks, it also applies positively. Consistently performing small, beneficial actions can compound to make eventual success almost a mathematical certainty.

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Success requires a paradoxical mindset: commit to a long-term vision (e.g., a decade) while being relentlessly consistent with daily actions. Compounding only works over long time horizons, so outlast competitors by sticking to the process for the 'thousand days' it takes to see exponential growth.

Successful individuals and companies don't experience more fortunate events. Instead, they excel at capitalizing on positive serendipity and navigating negative shocks. The narrative of "luck" is often a psychological crutch for those unwilling to take responsibility for their reactions to life's inherent volatility.

Long-term success isn't built on grand, singular actions. It's the cumulative effect of small, consistent, seemingly insignificant choices made over years that creates transformative results. Intense, infrequent efforts are less effective than daily, minor positive habits.

Top tennis players like Rafael Nadal win only ~55% of total points but triumph by winning the *important* ones. This analogy illustrates that successful investing isn't about being right every time. It's about consistently tilting small odds in your favor across many bets, like a casino, to ensure long-term success.

A major career breakthrough isn't a single lucky shot but a rapid sequence of events where being prepared for one opportunity immediately creates the next. The success of a key performance created the audience for a comedy special, which in turn sold out arenas, demonstrating a powerful compounding effect.

Instead of aiming for peak performance, establish a baseline habit you can stick to even on bad days—when you're tired, busy, or unmotivated. This builds a floor for consistency, which is more important than occasional heroic efforts. Progress comes from what you do when it's hard.

Do not wait to feel confident before you start a new venture. Confidence isn't something you find; it's something you build through the repetitive act of showing up and doing the work, even when you're terrified. It is a result of consistent courage, not a cause of it.

In any difficult pursuit, the majority of people will try, fail, and drop out. The key is recognizing that with every failure you endure and learn from, the line of competitors gets smaller. True advantage lies not in initial talent but in the willingness to get back in line repeatedly while others give up.

While goals set direction, they are temporary. A system is the collection of daily habits and processes that drives long-term, repeatable success. Winners and losers often have the same goals; the system is what differentiates them. Focus on the process, and the results will follow.

You can't force yourself to believe something without evidence. True self-belief is built gradually by executing small tasks successfully, creating a portfolio of personal 'case studies' that prove your capability and build momentum, much like building muscle in a gym.