The phrase "I make my own luck" is a misnomer. Life outcomes are a function of two things: luck (uncontrollable) and decision quality. While you can't control luck, you can consistently make better decisions that increase the probability of favorable outcomes over time.
Successful individuals and companies don't experience more fortunate events. Instead, they excel at capitalizing on positive serendipity and navigating negative shocks. The narrative of "luck" is often a psychological crutch for those unwilling to take responsibility for their reactions to life's inherent volatility.
Lee defines luck not as random chance, but as the outcome of persistence. He observed someone storm off a bus with a broken fare machine while he got a free ride simply by asking what to do. He concludes that good luck often comes from actively seeking solutions when confronted with a problem instead of accepting defeat.
Long-term success isn't built on grand, singular actions. It's the cumulative effect of small, consistent, seemingly insignificant choices made over years that creates transformative results. Intense, infrequent efforts are less effective than daily, minor positive habits.
A good outcome does not automatically validate the decision-making process, as luck plays a significant role. Howard Marks stresses the importance of intellectual humility in recognizing that a successful result could have stemmed from wrong reasons or randomness, a crucial distinction for repeatable success.
For an event with a 1-in-N chance of happening, if you try N times, the probability of it occurring at least once is roughly 63%. While this highlights the danger of repeated low-probability risks, it also applies positively. Consistently performing small, beneficial actions can compound to make eventual success almost a mathematical certainty.
The RAS in your brain acts as a filter, showing you information that aligns with your core beliefs. If you adopt the belief 'I am a lucky person,' your RAS will start pointing out opportunities that were always there but previously filtered out. This is the neuroscience behind 'creating your own luck.'
Leaders often fail to separate outcome from process. A good result from a bad decision (like a risky bet paying off) reinforces poor judgment. Attributing success solely to skill and failure to bad luck prevents process improvement and leads to repeated errors over time.
Destiny's "Two-Step Flow Theory" suggests life outcomes are set within a bracket determined by uncontrollable factors like genetics and upbringing. While you can't change the bracket, your effort, diligence, and mindset determine your position within it, blending determinism with personal responsibility.
You can systematically increase your luck by evaluating choices based on which one presents a wider range of potential positive outcomes. Opting for an unconventional seminar over a predictable night out is a bet on higher variance and a greater chance for a life-changing encounter.
The key to success is high-volume decision-making with a slight edge, not perfection. Like a casino, being right just over half the time on decisions with measurable outcomes guarantees long-term success. This mindset encourages action over analysis paralysis and accepts failure as part of the process.