A political party might intentionally trigger a government shutdown not to win policy concessions, but to create a public narrative of a dysfunctional opposition. The true victory isn't legislative but reputational, aiming to sway voters in upcoming elections by making the ruling party look incompetent.

Widespread suffering alone doesn't trigger a revolution. Historically, successful uprisings require a politically savvy, well-organized group with a clear agenda and influential leadership. Disparate and unorganized populations, no matter how desperate, tend to see their energy dissipate without causing systemic change.

When a political movement is out of power, it's easy to unify against a common opponent. Once they gain power and become the establishment, internal disagreements surface, leading to factions and infighting as they debate the group's future direction.

The lack of a unified national narrative creates profound societal division. America is fractured by two irreconcilable stories: one of colonialist oppression and another of unprecedented prosperity, making a shared identity and collective action impossible.

A simple test for a political system's quality is whether it must use force to retain its citizens. The Berlin Wall and North Korea's borders were built to prevent people from leaving, not to stop others from entering. This need to contain a population is an implicit confession by the state that life is better elsewhere, contrasting with free societies that attract immigrants.

Historically, countries crossing a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio experience revolution or collapse. As the U.S. approaches this threshold (currently 122%), its massive debt forces zero-sum political fights over a shrinking pie, directly fueling the social unrest and polarization seen today.

Command economies inevitably rely on force. In a free society, disagreement is resolved through persuasion. In an authoritarian system where directives are absolute, dissent is ultimately met with force. Adopting a top-down economic model means accepting state-sanctioned violence as a necessary tool.

Historian Anne Applebaum observes that significant US constitutional amendments often follow profound national traumas like the Revolution or the Civil War. This suggests that without a similar large-scale crisis, mustering the collective will to address deep-seated issues like systemic corruption is historically difficult, as there is no single moment of reckoning.

Systems built on violence and coercion, such as authoritarian rule or forced taxation, are fundamentally unstable. They incentivize participants to constantly seek ways to escape, betray, or overthrow the system, creating a repeating cycle of conflict rather than sustainable social coherence.