When meeting Michael Ovitz, Patrick Collison ignored his successes. Instead, he bookmarked every mistake in Ovitz's memoir to analyze the conditions and decision-making, viewing this as a wiser path to learning.
Waiting for perfect data leads to paralysis. A core founder skill is making hard decisions with incomplete information. This 'founder gut' isn't innate; it's developed by studying the thought processes—not just the outcomes—of experienced entrepreneurs through masterminds, advisors, or podcasts.
Top entrepreneurs don't just build a product; they become historians of their domain. They study predecessors, understand market evolution, and learn from past attempts. This deep historical knowledge, seen in founders of Stripe and Airbnb, is a key differentiator and trait of the very best.
Despite his own success, Daniel Ek maintains extreme intellectual humility. To master running large group meetings, a personal weakness, he spent a week shadowing Meta's CEO, taking notes and offering to get coffee just to absorb the culture and mechanics firsthand.
A common trait among exceptional founders is a deep, almost academic, understanding of their industry's history. They learn from every past attempt, success, and failure. This historical context allows them to innovate with a unique perspective and avoid the pitfalls that doomed their predecessors, a sign of true commitment and expertise.
Disagreeing with Peter Thiel, Josh Wolf argues that studying people who made willful mistakes is more valuable than studying success stories. Analyzing failures provides a clear catalog of what to avoid, offering a more practical and robust learning framework based on inversion.
A venture capitalist's first question to a founder is about a major failure. An inability to answer ends the meeting, as it signals a lack of experience in confronting and overcoming adversity, a crucial skill for leading a startup.
Instead of viewing missteps as failures, Petrie sees them as essential learning opportunities. For example, a marketing event that didn't drive bottom-funnel traffic isn't a mistake, but a valuable lesson that establishes a benchmark for improvement next year.
After a startup fails or you exit, dedicate time to writing a detailed, private postmortem. Critically analyze interactions, decisions, and outcomes. This exercise helps transform painful experiences into a concrete set of operating principles for your next venture.
Intuition is not a mystical gut feeling but rapid pattern recognition based on experience. Since leaders cannot "watch game tape," they must build this mental library by systematically discussing failures and setbacks. This process of embedding learnings sharpens their ability to recognize patterns in future situations.
Parker Conrad pushes back on the common trope that failure is a great teacher. He argues that you actually learn very little from failure, which is often 'soul-destroying.' Instead, he believes founders learn far more from success and the pattern recognition that comes from seeing what actually works.