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Apple's strong revenue, particularly from services, is attributed more to trapping users in its ecosystem than to delighting them with new products. This dynamic, where users feel they *have* to pay, signals underlying brand stagnation and a lack of genuine customer excitement.
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Despite near-unlimited capital and distribution, Apple's most impressive innovation in the last decade has been a thinner iPhone. This is viewed as a major failure of vision and a massive missed opportunity for a company positioned to lead in new technological frontiers.
The iPhone's massive profitability makes it difficult for Apple to pivot to a future where AI integrates across many different, potentially lower-margin devices like smart pens or glasses. The company's core business model may be a barrier to embracing the next computing paradigm.
By outsourcing core AI models to Google, Apple saves on R&D but loses deep expertise in the technology that will define future devices. This dependency could hinder its ability to create tightly integrated, next-generation hardware, which has historically been its primary competitive advantage.
Apple's upcoming AI devices like smart glasses and AirPods will not be standalone products but rather accessories heavily reliant on the iPhone for processing power and connectivity. This strategy reinforces the iPhone's central role in Apple's ecosystem, increasing its moat.
In 2004, Apple considered a credit card whose points could only buy iTunes songs. This was economically brilliant for Apple due to high margins on digital music. However, the rise of streaming services like Spotify would have quickly rendered this reward system obsolete, highlighting the risk of tying loyalty programs to a single, disruptable product category.
Apple's current success, particularly with Apple Silicon, is the result of long-term strategic decisions made by Steve Jobs in the late 2000s. The company is accused of milking these past innovations for profit while failing to launch its own visionary, "skate to where the puck is going" projects.
The increasing power of iPhones presents a challenge for Apple. Since core apps like Instagram don't demand more hardware resources, users have less incentive to upgrade. This lengthens the device replacement cycle, pressuring Apple to introduce compute-heavy features like on-device AI to compel consumers to buy new hardware.
Apple's dominant hardware and App Store ecosystem allow it to generate over $1B in annual revenue from AI app fees. This strategy outsources the massive capex and R&D risk to AI labs like OpenAI, creating a high-margin business while they refine their own on-device AI plan.
Thompson critiques Apple's lucrative services strategy as a shift from creating the best products to "harvesting the profits from other companies' innovations." The argument is that this rent-seeking behavior is corrosive to the company's core DNA of product excellence and innovation.
Apple's strategy of frequent, incremental product updates successfully balanced two key stakeholders. Consumers received progressively better products, while Wall Street was satisfied with predictable upgrade cycles that drove consistent revenue growth. This dual-focus strategy, more pronounced than under Steve Jobs, was central to Apple's financial success.
