To differentiate hype from reality, seed investors should practice "vibe coding": daily, hands-on experimentation with new developer tools. This provides an intuitive understanding of current technological capabilities, leading to better investment decisions and inoculating them against unrealistic expectations.

Related Insights

The goal of early validation is not to confirm your genius, but to risk being proven wrong before committing resources. Negative feedback is a valuable outcome that prevents building the wrong product. It often reveals that the real opportunity is "a degree to the left" of the original idea.

The trend of 'vibe coding'—casually using prompts to generate code without rigor—is creating low-quality, unmaintainable software. The AI engineering community has reached its limit with this approach and is actively searching for a new development paradigm that marries AI's speed with traditional engineering's craft and reliability.

Instead of defaulting to skepticism and looking for reasons why something won't work, the most productive starting point is to imagine how big and impactful a new idea could become. After exploring the optimistic case, you can then systematically address and mitigate the risks.

Simply instructing engineers to "build AI" is ineffective. Leaders must develop hands-on proficiency with no-code tools to understand AI's capabilities and limitations. This direct experience provides the necessary context to guide technical teams, make bolder decisions, and avoid being misled.

To accelerate learning in AI development, start with a project that is personally interesting and fun, rather than one focused on monetization. An engaging, low-stakes goal, like an 'outrageous excuse' generator, maintains motivation and serves the primary purpose of rapid skill acquisition and experimentation.

Since startups lack infinite time and money, an investor's key diligence question is whether the team can learn and iterate fast enough to find a valuable solution before resources run out. This 'learning velocity' is more important than initial traction or a perfect starting plan.

Instead of walking into a pitch unprepared, Reid Hoffman advises founders to use large language models to pre-emptively critique their business idea. Prompting an AI to act as a skeptical VC helps founders anticipate tough questions and strengthen their narrative before meeting real investors.

Non-technical founders using AI tools must unlearn traditional project planning. The key is rapid iteration: building a first version you know you will discard. This mindset leverages the AI's speed, making it emotionally easier to pivot and refine ideas without the sunk cost fallacy of wasting developer time.

Moving from a science-focused research phase to building physical technology demonstrators is critical. The sooner a deep tech company does this, the faster it uncovers new real-world challenges, creates tangible proof for investors and customers, and fosters a culture of building, not just researching.

While moats like network effects and brand develop over time, the only sustainable advantage an early-stage startup has is its iteration speed. The ability to quickly cycle through ideas, build MVPs, and gather feedback is the fundamental driver of success before achieving scale.