The theory that Reagan's campaign delayed the hostage release illustrates how anxieties about election interference, combined with later revelations like Iran-Contra, can create powerful and lasting conspiracy narratives, regardless of official inquiries finding no evidence.
The tendency to blame a single entity for disparate negative events isn't about logic but about satisfying a deep psychological need for order and control. This "derangement syndrome" provides a simple, pre-made narrative that assigns blame and creates a sense of understanding, regardless of evidence.
The appeal of complex conspiracies isn't just about information; it's psychological. Believing you are at the center of a vast plot makes life more exciting and meaningful. The realization that one is not important can lead to "secondary depression," making the conspiracy narrative preferable to reality.
The erosion of trusted, centralized news sources by social media creates an information vacuum. This forces people into a state of 'conspiracy brain,' where they either distrust all information or create flawed connections between unverified data points.
Instead of viewing the crisis as an immediate disaster, some in Carter's re-election team saw it as an opportunity. They believed it would allow Carter to "wrap himself in the flag" and appear presidential, a strategy that catastrophically backfired as the crisis dragged on.
Humans crave control. When faced with uncertainty, the brain compensates by creating narratives and seeing patterns where none exist. This explains why a conspiracy theory about a planned event can feel more comforting than a random, chaotic one—the former offers an illusion of understandable order.
In a final act of humiliation, Iranian authorities delayed the hostages' release until the very moment Ronald Reagan finished his inaugural address. This ensured Jimmy Carter, who had obsessed over their freedom, was a private citizen, denying him his final presidential goal.
Although likely unaware of the initial embassy takeover plan, Ayatollah Khomeini astutely leveraged the ensuing hostage crisis. It became an invaluable political tool to unify the public against a common enemy and sideline moderate rivals, thereby cementing his revolutionary control.
Conspiracy theories are often logically fragile because they require believing in a group of conspirators who exhibit perfect psychopathy, flawless competence, and complete information control over long periods—an impossibly stable combination in the real world.
The human brain resists ambiguity and seeks closure. When a significant, factual event occurs but is followed by a lack of official information (often for legitimate investigative reasons), this creates an "open loop." People will naturally invent narratives to fill that void, giving rise to conspiracy theories.
According to Kiriakou, a former CIA director coined the term 'conspiracy theory' as a deliberate strategy to marginalize and dismiss individuals who were accurately exposing secret and unethical agency operations like MKUltra, making them sound irrational.