The process of articulating ideas in writing forces clarity and exposes flaws that remain hidden when they are just thoughts. It serves as a powerful filtering mechanism for bad ideas before they consume resources.
Markets, technologies, and companies change constantly. The one constant is the human operating system—our biases, emotions, and irrationality. The ability to systematically trade against predictable human behavior is an enduring source of alpha.
When selling software to an industry with ineffective or slow-moving customers, it's a strong signal to pivot. Instead of serving them, it may be more lucrative to build a vertically integrated solution and compete with them directly.
Disruption opportunities in sectors like publishing exist not because incumbents are incompetent, but because their existing structures and business models force them to be "backward compatible," preventing true innovation and creating an opening for new players.
Experiencing a major public failure or online pile-on, while brutal, can be the best thing to happen to a creator. It builds resilience and humility, and by showing you the worst-case scenario, it liberates you from the fear of future failure.
When a struggling company created a clear, written turnaround plan, the team bought in and executed, despite changes making their jobs more difficult. The clarity and logic of the written document created powerful alignment and commitment.
The Catholic Church financed the printing press to increase revenue, blind to its second-order effects. The same technology was later used by Martin Luther to mass-produce pamphlets that ignited the Protestant Reformation, undermining the church's authority.
To build a unique personal brand, find the intersection of your varied interests. By overlapping topics like tech, pop culture, and sports, you can create a niche where you are the undisputed expert, effectively creating a "personal monopoly."
When new technology threatens an industry (e.g., photography vs. painting), incumbents attack the innovation's *process* ("it's not real art") because they cannot compete on its *outcome* (a good product). This is a predictable pattern of resistance.
Major innovations are often driven by simple greed, not lofty ideals. Gutenberg, a "grifter" obsessed with getting rich, secured his initial funding from the Catholic Church to mass-produce "letters of indulgence"—effectively selling tickets to heaven.
Talented people avoid starting things due to fear of public failure. The reality is that most people don't pay attention, and even negative attention is fleeting. This creates a highly asymmetric upside for taking creative and entrepreneurial risks.