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Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

Pivot · Feb 24, 2026

Trump's tariff turmoil & Netflix threats. Plus: Mexico's cartel crisis, SOTU predictions, and the debate over AI-proof "Halo" stocks.

Policy Inconsistency From Trump's Tariffs Harms Business More Than the Tariffs Themselves

The most crippling aspect of the ongoing tariff saga is the uncertainty it creates. The inability for businesses, especially small ones, to conduct long-term planning due to unpredictable policy shifts is more economically damaging than the direct financial cost of the duties.

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Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

Pivot·16 hours ago

Presidential Demands for Board Member Removal Inject Unpriceable Political Risk into Markets

When a president targets a specific corporate board member, it shifts markets from predictable, rules-based competition to a personality-driven system. Investors can price regulatory changes, but they struggle to price discretionary political targeting, which undermines market stability.

Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions thumbnail

Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

Pivot·16 hours ago

SaaS Giants Like Adobe Are Undervalued as Markets Overstate the AI Disruption Threat

The market fears that AI will instantly replace enterprise SaaS platforms are overblown. Companies like Salesforce and Adobe are deeply embedded in corporate workflows with massive switching costs. They are now trading at low multiples despite strong growth, presenting a significant investment opportunity.

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Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

Pivot·16 hours ago

Mexican Cartel Violence Is Now Driven by Local Market Control, Not Just Drug Exports

The nature of cartel violence in Mexico has shifted from traditional drug wars to battles for local economic power. Cartels are deeply integrated into the economy and government, competing for diversified revenue streams like fuel theft, extortion, and control over local supply chains.

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Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

Pivot·16 hours ago

Activist Movements Fail Without Shifting from Public Signal to Executive Incentive Change

Scott Galloway's "Resistant Unsubscribe" campaign successfully sent a "signal" to the public but has not yet reconfigured the "incentives" for big tech executives. Lasting impact requires moving beyond raising awareness to creating concrete, board-level pressure that alters corporate behavior.

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Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

Pivot·16 hours ago

Scott Galloway's "Resistant Unsubscribe" Proves Podcasts Can Drive Millions in Earned Media for Activism

The grassroots movement to boycott big tech gained media exposure equivalent to a $5-9 million advertising campaign without any paid spend. This was primarily driven by the hosts' established podcast and social media platforms, demonstrating the power of these channels for non-profit campaigns.

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Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

Pivot·16 hours ago

The U.S. Runs a Trade Surplus in "Stuff," a Nuance Missed by Trump's Focus on Dollar Deficits

While the U.S. has a monetary trade deficit, it receives a surplus of physical goods and services due to the dollar's strength. This concept, like getting a great haircut for a low price, illustrates a fundamental benefit of global trade that protectionist policies often overlook.

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Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

Pivot·16 hours ago

Netflix Could Benefit More From Losing the Warner Brothers Bidding War Than Winning It

If rival Paramount overpays for Warner Brothers, Netflix avoids a costly acquisition. This would free up its $80B+ war chest for content creation while allowing it to bog down its competitor in a messy integration and protracted legal challenges, ultimately strengthening its market position.

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Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

Pivot·16 hours ago

AI Won't Kill SaaS Companies; It Will Boost Their Margins by Reducing R&D Costs

Even if AI dramatically lowers coding costs, it won't destroy established SaaS businesses. Technical expenses only account for 10-20% of revenue for major SaaS players. The other 80% is spent on marketing, events, and client service, creating an opportunity for significant margin expansion.

Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions thumbnail

Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

Pivot·16 hours ago