Relying on previously successful solutions without deeply analyzing the new problem's context is a cognitive trap. Ron Johnson's attempt to apply Apple's retail strategy to JCPenney failed because he overlooked fundamental differences in their customer bases, demonstrating the danger of surface-level analogical reasoning.

The common analogy of AI to electricity is dangerously rosy. AI is more like fire: a transformative tool that, if mismanaged or weaponized, can spread uncontrollably with devastating consequences. This mental model better prepares us for AI's inherent risks and accelerating power.

The current era of multipolarity, global economic integration, and tensions between rising and incumbent powers (like China and the US) is more analogous to the early 20th century before WWI than the bipolar Cold War. This historical parallel carries stark warnings about the potential for conflict.

The dynamic between a rising power (China) and a ruling one (the U.S.) fits the historical pattern of the "Thucydides' trap." In 12 of the last 16 instances of this scenario, the confrontation has ended in open war, suggesting that a peaceful resolution is the exception, not the rule.

An initially moderate pessimistic stance on new technology often escalates into advocacy for draconian policies. The 1970s ban on civilian nuclear power is a prime example of a fear-based decision that created catastrophic long-term consequences, including strengthening geopolitical rivals.

Evaluate political ideologies based on their historical potential for large-scale harm ("amplitude"), not just a leader's current negative actions. A socialist path, historically leading to mass death, may pose a greater long-term threat than a leader's immediate, but less catastrophic, authoritarian tendencies.

Effective political propaganda isn't about outright lies; it's about controlling the frame of reference. By providing a simple, powerful lens through which to view a complex situation, leaders can dictate the terms of the debate and trap audiences within their desired narrative, limiting alternative interpretations.

People look at the same set of facts (stars) but interpret them through different frameworks, creating entirely different narratives (constellations). These narratives, though artificial, have real-world utility for navigation and decision-making, explaining why people reach opposing conclusions from the same data.

The brain's tendency to create stories simplifies complex information but creates a powerful confirmation bias. As illustrated by a military example where a friendly tribe was nearly bombed, leaders who get trapped in their narrative will only see evidence that confirms it, ignoring critical data to the contrary.