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Observing the US struggle in Iran, countries worldwide are asking "How much Chinese should I buy?" They are actively diversifying their currency holdings, infrastructure technology, and diplomatic ties away from the US to hedge against its perceived decline.
The US foreign policy strategy relies on financial coercion (squeezing via the dollar), while China's focuses on providing tangible goods and infrastructure (airports, solar panels). Developing nations increasingly prefer China's tangible benefits over America's financial lectures and threats, shifting global influence.
For nearly 20 years, China has become the primary trade and investment partner for many Latin American nations, embedding itself in critical infrastructure. US attempts to reverse this influence are now largely ineffective because countries are hedging against an unreliable United States.
The US freezing Russian assets and cutting SWIFT access during the Ukraine war demonstrated the risks of relying on the dollar. This prompted countries like China to accelerate their diversification into gold, viewing it as a geopolitically neutral asset to reduce their vulnerability to US foreign policy and sanctions.
The US dollar was notably absent as a major topic at recent IMF meetings, a sharp contrast to previous years dominated by de-dollarization and election risk talks. This suggests global policymakers' and investors' immediate concerns have pivoted away from the dollar's reserve status towards issues like Iran, China, and AI.
Beyond strategic ports, China's maneuvering includes creating financial infrastructure, like a South American gold corridor, as part of a larger strategy to establish a gold-backed currency that could rival and undermine the US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.
The popular narrative that countries like China are buying gold to escape the US dollar is a misinterpretation. It's a standard central bank trade: when a country's own currency is weakening, they buy gold as a hedge. When their currency is strong, they buy US Treasuries.
The US dollar reached its peak global dominance in the early 2000s. The world is now gradually shifting to a system where multiple currencies (like the euro and yuan) and neutral assets (like gold) share the role of reserve currency, marking a return to a more historically normal state.
A non-obvious consequence of the Iran conflict is the strengthening of China's position in global finance. While bond yields in the US and Europe rose, China's remained stable, making it an unlikely safe haven for global capital and giving its government more policy room to stimulate its economy.
By selectively allowing passage for tankers pricing oil in Chinese Yuan, Iran is playing a high-stakes game. This forces countries to bypass the US dollar to secure their energy supply, directly threatening the foundation of American global economic power and accelerating de-dollarization.
China is capitalizing on geopolitical instability from the Iran conflict to advance its de-dollarization agenda. It is increasing the use of the yuan (CNY) in trade settlements with Middle Eastern partners, chipping away at the US dollar's long-held dominance in international finance and energy markets.