Microsoft's integration of OpenAI into Bing was a chance to make Google "dance" and challenge its search dominance. However, they fumbled the execution, pulled back after early stumbles, and ultimately failed to capitalize, ceding the narrative back to Google and OpenAI.
Despite being a leader in AI development, the US has significant negative public sentiment. This skepticism contrasts with more positive views in China and Europe and could hinder AI adoption, funding, and favorable regulation, creating a unique challenge for the industry's leaders.
The most successful AI applications like ChatGPT are built ground-up. Incumbents trying to retrofit AI into existing products (e.g., Alexa Plus) are handicapped by their legacy architecture and success, a classic innovator's dilemma. True disruption requires a native approach.
AI search engine Perplexity faces a narrowing path as a standalone company. Its core features are being rapidly integrated into larger chatbots like ChatGPT and Gemini, making an acquisition by a company like Samsung increasingly likely as its strategic options diminish.
By focusing PR on scientific breakthroughs like protein folding, Google DeepMind and Demis Hassabis build public trust. This strategy contrasts sharply with OpenAI's narrative, which is clouded by its controversial non-profit-to-for-profit shift, creating widespread public skepticism.
For Apple's foldable to succeed, it must be positioned as a new device category—like a pocketable iPad Mini—rather than just an iPhone with a larger screen. Coupling this new form factor with a truly intelligent, Gemini-powered Siri could create a compelling new product.
The tangible nature of hardware, like an iPhone or an NVIDIA GPU, makes it easier for a charismatic leader to demonstrate and generate excitement. AI software, being abstract and like a "blank box," poses a much harder marketing challenge that currently lacks a Steve Jobs-like figure.
Despite massive spending and partnerships, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Meta have failed to launch a defining, consumer-facing AI product. This surprising lack of execution challenges the assumption that incumbents would easily dominate the AI space, leaving the door open for native AI startups.
The common analogy of AI being "like a website" that every company must adopt may be misleading. The real transformative power of AI could be in enabling entirely new, AI-native businesses that leapfrog incumbents, rather than simply being a feature tacked onto existing products.