Contrary to narratives focused on its AI lag, Apple is predicted to have its best year ever in 2026. This success will stem from the continued strength of its core iPhone product and a premium foldable phone, as dedicated AI hardware devices from competitors will not yet be mature enough to pose a real threat.

Apple's 'iPhone Pocket,' a collaboration with designer Issey Miyake, is less about utility and more about a strategic entry into high fashion. This move targets non-traditional tech consumers by tapping into existing global trends (like phone slings) and leveraging a famous designer's brand, aiming to establish Apple in a market where tech has yet to gain a strong foothold.

The iPhone Air's failure isn't an isolated incident; it follows the path of the iPhone 5C and iPhone Mini. Apple excels at the premium and entry-level ends of its product line but consistently struggles to create a compelling product for the "in-between" prosumer, positioning it awkwardly without a clear value proposition.

By launching the iPhone at Macworld, not CES, Steve Jobs controlled the narrative. He prevented journalists from framing it as just another phone to be compared feature-by-feature against competitors like the Nokia N95, which was superior on paper. This allowed him to define a new category instead of competing in an existing one.

The seemingly unsuccessful thin iPhone Air is likely a strategic R&D initiative to master miniaturizing core components like silicon and PCBs. This effort paves the way for next-generation wearables like AI glasses, making the phone a public "road sign" for future products rather than a standalone sales priority.

Despite its hardware prowess, Apple is poorly positioned for the coming era of ambient AI devices. Its historical dominance is built on screen-based interfaces, and its voice assistant, Siri, remains critically underdeveloped, creating a significant disadvantage against voice-first competitors.

By integrating Google's Gemini directly into Siri, Apple poses a significant threat to OpenAI. The move isn't primarily to sell more iPhones, but to commoditize the AI layer and siphon off daily queries from the ChatGPT app. This default, native integration could erode OpenAI's mobile user base without Apple needing to build its own model.

Apple is avoiding massive capital expenditure on building its own LLMs. By partnering with a leader like Google for the underlying tech (e.g., Gemini for Siri), Apple can focus on its core strength: productizing and integrating technology into a superior user experience, which may be the more profitable long-term play.

While critics say Apple "missed AI," its strategy of partnering with Google for Gemini is a masterstroke. Apple avoids billions in CapEx, sidesteps brand-damaging AI controversies, and maintains control over the lucrative user interface, positioning itself to win the "agent of commerce" war.