Brands running one static Black Friday deal all November see consumer interest wane. The most successful brands introduce a significantly better offer on Thanksgiving evening, creating a massive revenue spike by tapping into learned consumer behavior of waiting for the best deal.
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Don't worry that BFCM shoppers are low-LTV "bargain hunters." The primary goal of the holiday sales period isn't acquiring loyal customers; it's maximizing revenue and boosting your overall blended ROAS. Focus on top-of-funnel acquisition in the months leading up to November.
Contrary to the belief that late-night shopping is for small, impulsive buys, data reveals it's when consumers purchase big-ticket items like airfare and appliances. This "vampire shopping" trend suggests a period of focused, uninterrupted decision-making for busy consumers, creating a key sales window.
If your buyers consistently wait until the end of the quarter, it's not just your strategy. Large software companies have conditioned the entire market to expect a discount for holding out, creating a systemic purchasing behavior that affects your deal velocity regardless of your own pricing policy.
Move beyond generic discounts by framing offers around the customer's immediate, often unspoken, intent. For example, a "last minute hero finder" speaks directly to the urgency of holiday shopping, while a "donation impact calculator" targets the specific motivations of year-end charitable giving, making the offer more compelling.
For consumers under 35, cart abandonment is no longer just a sign of friction—it's a deliberate strategy to solicit a discount. Brands relying on standard ESPs miss most of these high-intent moments, while identity resolution can increase identification of these opportunities by up to 10x.
When you increase your BFCM discount (e.g., from 20% to 35%), don't turn off high-performing ads that mention the lower discount. A customer clicking an ad for 20% off and discovering a 35% offer on-site is a pleasant surprise that boosts conversion.
BFCM customers buy on discount, not brand affinity, and rarely return. Brands must go overboard with post-purchase brand storytelling through multiple channels (email, ads, social) to reinforce the "why" and earn a second purchase from this transactional cohort.
Contrary to the 'value first, pitch last' model, present the full offer before your launch event even begins. Then, create urgency by offering a new, valuable bonus each day that expires within 24 hours. This strategy leverages peak attendance on day one and frames the purchase as an opportunity to gain extra value rather than a hard sell.
Data shows a predictable drop in shopper intent from roughly November 7th to 20th. Brands should run an initial early November sale, then strategically pull back ad spend during this "dead zone" to preserve budget for the main BFCM push starting around the 21st.
With 58% of consumers worried about finances, over 40% are constantly hunting for deals on websites they've never visited before. This sustained deal-seeking behavior creates a massive, ongoing opportunity for challenger brands to capture market share from established incumbents whose customers are now actively shopping around.