Data shows a predictable drop in shopper intent from roughly November 7th to 20th. Brands should run an initial early November sale, then strategically pull back ad spend during this "dead zone" to preserve budget for the main BFCM push starting around the 21st.

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December and January are prime for lead generation, contrary to popular belief. By offering content that signals buying intent (e.g., vendor comparisons, gift finders), marketers can tap into the year-end mindset of changing vendors, last-minute shopping, and making donations, outperforming generic top-of-funnel content.

The "dirty secret" of retail is that many businesses lose money for 46 weeks a year and rely entirely on the high-margin period from Thanksgiving to New Year's to "print money." This intense seasonality makes the holiday quarter an existential period for the entire sector.

Failing to prospect during the holidays creates an empty January pipeline. Given a typical 60-90 day sales cycle, this deficit directly causes poor performance in February and March, effectively sabotaging the entire first quarter before it even begins.

Don't worry that BFCM shoppers are low-LTV "bargain hunters." The primary goal of the holiday sales period isn't acquiring loyal customers; it's maximizing revenue and boosting your overall blended ROAS. Focus on top-of-funnel acquisition in the months leading up to November.

Contrary to the belief that late-night shopping is for small, impulsive buys, data reveals it's when consumers purchase big-ticket items like airfare and appliances. This "vampire shopping" trend suggests a period of focused, uninterrupted decision-making for busy consumers, creating a key sales window.

Move beyond generic discounts by framing offers around the customer's immediate, often unspoken, intent. For example, a "last minute hero finder" speaks directly to the urgency of holiday shopping, while a "donation impact calculator" targets the specific motivations of year-end charitable giving, making the offer more compelling.

When you increase your BFCM discount (e.g., from 20% to 35%), don't turn off high-performing ads that mention the lower discount. A customer clicking an ad for 20% off and discovering a 35% offer on-site is a pleasant surprise that boosts conversion.

BFCM customers buy on discount, not brand affinity, and rarely return. Brands must go overboard with post-purchase brand storytelling through multiple channels (email, ads, social) to reinforce the "why" and earn a second purchase from this transactional cohort.

With 58% of consumers worried about finances, over 40% are constantly hunting for deals on websites they've never visited before. This sustained deal-seeking behavior creates a massive, ongoing opportunity for challenger brands to capture market share from established incumbents whose customers are now actively shopping around.

Brands running one static Black Friday deal all November see consumer interest wane. The most successful brands introduce a significantly better offer on Thanksgiving evening, creating a massive revenue spike by tapping into learned consumer behavior of waiting for the best deal.

Navigate the Mid-November "Dead Zone" by Pulling Back Ad Spend Before BFCM's Final Push | RiffOn