A world order based on coercion invites backlash. Weaker nations, when oppressed by a single superpower, will band together and use surreptitious methods to disrupt and weaken the hegemon. Civilization itself is a model of the weak uniting against the strong.

A nation is at its most aggressive when it perceives its relative advantage slipping. Both the US and China are in a state of perceived decline, leading them to press their advantages and take bigger risks before their window of opportunity closes, increasing global instability.

The US-China competition is a cyclical race where the leader inevitably trips. When one nation gets ahead, it becomes overconfident and makes self-sabotaging mistakes—like China's 2021 tech crackdowns—allowing the other to adapt and catch up. It's a neck-and-neck race driven by hubris.

For generations, Western societies have viewed peace and prosperity as the default state. This perception is a historical outlier, making the return to 'dog eat dog' great power politics seem shocking, when in fact it's a reversion to the historical norm of conflict.

For a rising #2 power to voluntarily limit its military ambitions to appease the incumbent #1 is an act of extraordinary political wisdom, as former German Chancellor Bismarck demonstrated. The inherent risk is that such restraint will be perceived as weakness, leading to being 'kicked around' on the world stage.

History shows that nations are most aggressive when they perceive their strategic advantage is declining. Current global instability is driven by major powers like the US, Russia, and Germany all facing economic or military decline, making them more likely to engage in conflict to secure their positions.

China plays the long game. Instead of direct confrontation, its strategy is to wait for the U.S. to weaken itself through expensive military interventions and political division. This allows China to gain relative power without firing a shot, similar to its rise during the War on Terror.

An obsessive focus on internal political battles creates a critical geopolitical vulnerability. While a nation tears itself apart with divisive rhetoric, strategic adversaries like China benefit from the distraction and internal weakening. This domestic infighting accelerates the erosion of the nation's global influence and power.

When a global power like the U.S. acts unpredictably and alienates its allies, it creates a vacuum. Rivals like China can capitalize on this by positioning themselves as the stable, reliable alternative, attracting disillusioned partners without aggressive action.