Top Chinese officials use the metaphor "if the braking system isn't under control, you can't really step on the accelerator with confidence." This reflects a core belief that robust safety measures enable, rather than hinder, the aggressive development and deployment of powerful AI systems, viewing the two as synergistic.

The US and USSR, despite being adversaries, collaborated to prevent nuclear proliferation to rogue actors. A similar model can be applied to AI. The US and China share an interest in preventing powerful open-weight models from being used for cyber-attacks or bio-terrorism by third parties, creating a foundation for a safety dialogue.

Leading AI labs are strategically releasing high-risk capabilities, like cybersecurity exploits, to trusted defenders before a general public release. This pattern, seen with Anthropic and OpenAI, aims to harden systems against potential misuse, with biosafety likely being the next frontier for this approach.

The same governments pushing AI competition for a strategic edge may be forced into cooperation. As AI democratizes access to catastrophic weapons (CBRN), the national security risk will become so great that even rival superpowers will have a mutual incentive to create verifiable safety treaties.

The Trump administration, initially dismissive of AI safety, reversed its stance after Anthropic briefed it on its new, potentially dangerous 'Mythos' capability. This tangible, real-world threat, not theoretical debate, elevated AI safety to a key topic for US-China talks.

Acknowledging their safety plans might be inadequate, leaders from multiple frontier labs have begun to seriously entertain a coordinated slowdown. This represents a major shift, as they also explore legal "safe harbors" to collaborate on safety without triggering antitrust violations, breaking the frame of the current race.

The unstated reason AI labs are appealing to the US government to "pace" development is that only a government can handle the necessary international diplomacy. The labs recognize that any meaningful slowdown is futile without China's participation, making the letter an implicit request for the US to initiate a global, coordinated agreement.

The vulnerabilities in Anthropic's Fable 5 model "spooked" the Trump administration, softening its previous opposition to global AI governance. The incident has created momentum for multilateral discussions on setting baseline international safety standards for powerful AI, a significant shift in US policy.

Despite intense technological competition, both the U.S. and China face a common threat from non-state actors like terrorist or criminal groups acquiring powerful AI models. This shared vulnerability presents a potential opportunity for cooperation on AI regulation and safeguards, even amid broader strategic rivalry.