While payment systems like SWIFT or credit cards compromise on cost, speed, or global reach, stablecoins are the first rail to excel at all three. Armstrong argues this makes them an underappreciated technology with massive growth potential for global commerce.

Despite the hype, stablecoins face significant friction in on/off-boarding from fiat currency, limiting their current utility. Wise itself has stated it would use stablecoin rails if they became cheaper and faster, positioning it to leverage the technology rather than be disrupted by it.

The recent explosion of stablecoins wasn't due to a new financial innovation, but the maturation of underlying blockchain infrastructure. Cheaper and faster transactions on Layer 2 solutions and improved Layer 1s finally made large-scale, low-cost payments practical for real-world use.

Contrary to the typical 'legislate, then regulate, then launch' sequence, US regulators like the CFTC are actively permitting advanced stablecoin applications, such as derivatives settlement, even as overarching laws are still being finalized. This parallel-track approach accelerates market adoption and creates real-world precedent before rules are set in stone.

Widespread adoption of blockchain, particularly stablecoins, has been hindered by a "semi-illegal" regulatory environment in the U.S. (e.g., Operation Chokepoint). Now that this barrier is removed, major financial players are racing to integrate the technology, likely making it common within a year.

Instead of funding another stablecoin protocol, the more viable investment is in the tooling layer. This includes payment systems, SDKs, and accounting software (like triple-entry bookkeeping) that enable small businesses globally to integrate stablecoin payments into their existing fiat workflows.

After failing to convince U.S. consumers to use stablecoins for everyday payments, crypto companies like Coinbase are pivoting. They now see programmatic, machine-to-machine transactions by AI agents as a more promising path to drive mainstream adoption of stablecoins and their underlying blockchains.

The stablecoin market is mature, so new entrants cannot compete on technology alone. To succeed, they must be launched by an entity with a massive built-in user base, such as a social media giant or a large multinational, making standalone stablecoin startups effectively zeros.

Stablecoins will likely enter the US market not through domestic retail payments, but via international network effects, similar to WhatsApp. Initial US users will be those interacting with the global economy, and adoption will spread inward as these cross-border connections become more common.