The conflict in Ukraine exposed the vulnerability of expensive, "exquisite" military platforms (like tanks) to inexpensive technologies (like drones). This has shifted defense priorities toward cheap, mass-producible, "attritable" systems. This fundamental change in product and economics creates a massive opportunity for startups to innovate outside the traditional defense prime model.

Speculation is often maligned as mere gambling, but it is a critical component for price discovery, liquidity, and risk transfer in any healthy financial market. Without speculators, markets would be inefficient. Prediction markets are an explicit tool to harness this power for accurate forecasting.

Instead of developing proprietary systems, the military adopts video game controllers because gaming companies have already invested billions perfecting an intuitive, easy-to-learn interface. This strategy leverages decades of private-sector R&D, providing troops with a familiar, optimized tool for complex, high-stakes operations.

Vested's investment model gains an edge from proprietary data on employee sentiment and behavior. Signals like unsolicited negative comments, willingness to counter on price, or selling more shares than necessary provide unique insights into a company's health that traditional financial analysis lacks, forming a data moat.

As a highly volatile and retail-driven asset, Bitcoin serves as a leading indicator for investor risk appetite. It's a "canary in the coal mine" where a "risk on" sentiment leads to sharp increases, while a "risk off" mood triggers rapid declines, often preceding moves in traditional markets.

Tech companies often use government and military contracts as a proving ground to refine complex technologies. This gives military personnel early access to tools, like Palantir a decade ago, long before they become mainstream in the corporate world.

Unlike traditional tech, founders in the American Dynamism space often succeed because of their deep, first-hand understanding of the customer (e.g., government, military). Many have prior service, hold security clearances, or have sold to government before. This "customer intimacy" allows them to speak the language and navigate complex procurement, a crucial advantage.

Prediction markets are accelerating their normalization by integrating directly into established ecosystems. Partnerships with Google, Robinhood, and the NYSE's owner embed gambling-like activities into everyday financial and informational tools, lowering barriers to entry and lending them legitimacy.

Coinbase is funding a UBI experiment giving New Yorkers crypto. This is a strategic play, not just charity. It aims to prove crypto's efficiency as a distribution mechanism for government welfare, positioning it to become the foundational infrastructure for future social programs and driving mass adoption.