According to PIMCO's CIO, post-crisis regulation heavily targets the last failure point (e.g., banks and consumer lending post-GFC). This makes previously regulated sectors safer while risk migrates to areas that escaped scrutiny, like today's non-financial corporate credit market.

Unlike the post-GFC era, governments now lack the fiscal and monetary flexibility to cushion every economic shock due to high debt levels. This is forcing global markets to trade on their own fundamentals again, creating volatility and relative value opportunities reminiscent of the pre-2008 era.

Instead of treating private credit creation as a black box, analyze it by tracking corporate bond issuance in real-time and observing whether the market is rewarding high-debt companies over quality names. A rally in riskier firms signals a positive credit impulse.

A country's fiscal health is becoming a primary driver of its currency's value, at times overriding central bank actions. Currencies like the British Pound face a "fiscal risk premium" due to borrowing concerns, while the Swedish Krona benefits from a positive budget outlook. This creates a clear divergence between fiscal "haves" and "have-nots."

Large, ongoing fiscal deficits are now the primary driver of the U.S. economy, a factor many macro analysts are missing. This sustained government spending creates a higher floor for economic activity and asset prices, rendering traditional monetary policy indicators less effective and making the economy behave more like a fiscally dominant state.

A new market dynamic has emerged where Fed rate cuts cause long-term bond yields to rise, breaking historical patterns. This anomaly is driven by investor concerns over fiscal imbalances and high national debt, meaning monetary easing no longer has its traditional effect on the back end of the yield curve.

Canadian bond yields fell after the budget announcement, indicating the market had priced in a "risk premium" for a much larger fiscal stimulus package. The actual deficit, while large, fell short of these aggressive expectations, preventing further currency weakness.

When countries run large, structural government deficits, their policy options become limited. Historically, this state of 'fiscal dominance' leads to the implementation of capital controls and other financial frictions to prevent capital flight and manage the currency, increasing risks for investors.

Enormous government borrowing is absorbing so much capital that it's crowding out corporate debt issuance, particularly for smaller businesses. This lack of new corporate supply leads to ironically tight credit spreads for large borrowers. This dynamic mirrors the intense concentration seen in public equity markets.