Silicon Valley is biased towards open-ended knowledge work like software engineering. However, a larger, often ignored opportunity for AI lies in automating the repeatable, deterministic business processes that power most of the non-tech economy, from customer support to operations.

AI coding agents thrive because developers have broad codebase access and work in a text-based medium. Enterprise knowledge work is stalled by fragmented data access, complex permissions, and multi-modal information (calls, meetings), which are significant hurdles for current AI.

Unlike coding, where context is centralized (IDE, repo) and output is testable, general knowledge work is scattered across apps. AI struggles to synthesize this fragmented context, and it's hard to objectively verify the quality of its output (e.g., a strategy memo), limiting agent effectiveness.

The idea that AI agents will autonomously choose and use software is futuristic but overlooks a crucial step: user trust. Most businesses are still in the early stages of adopting AI and are not yet ready to delegate high-stakes tasks without significant human oversight.

A new technology's adoption depends on its fit with a profession's core tasks. Spreadsheets were an immediate revolution for accountants but a minor tool for lawyers. Similarly, generative AI is transformative for coders and marketers but struggles to find a daily use case in many other professions.

Even if AI perfects software engineering, automating AI R&D will be limited by non-coding tasks, as AI companies aren't just software engineers. Furthermore, AI assistance might only be enough to maintain the current rate of progress as 'low-hanging fruit' disappears, rather than accelerate it.

The slow adoption of AI isn't due to a natural 'diffusion lag' but is evidence that models still lack core competencies for broad economic value. If AI were as capable as skilled humans, it would integrate into businesses almost instantly.

The primary barrier to AI adoption isn't the technology, but the user's inability to think algorithmically. Most people cannot break down their workflow into a flowchart for an agent to execute. This creates a new skill gap, where a few systems-thinkers will drive a disproportionate amount of value.

The AI productivity boom is confined to tech because developers have fewer adoption hurdles. Coding is a text-only medium with self-contained context in a codebase. In contrast, roles like marketing or law require complex data setup and workflow re-engineering, slowing down the productivity gains seen in macro-economic data.