Current instability is not unique to one country but part of a global pattern. This mirrors historical "crisis centuries" (like the 17th) where civil wars, plagues, and economic turmoil occurred simultaneously across different civilizations, driven by similar underlying variables.
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For generations, increasing wealth allowed Western society to discard essential cultural norms like social trust and shared values. Now that economic growth is faltering, the catastrophic consequences of this "death of culture" are becoming fully visible.
Extreme wealth inequality creates a fundamental risk beyond social unrest. When the most powerful citizens extricate themselves from public systems—schools, security, healthcare, transport—they lose empathy and any incentive to invest in the nation's core infrastructure. This decay of shared experience and investment leads to societal fragility.
Studying history can be a calming practice. It reveals that past eras were often far worse than the present, providing a soothing perspective that humanity has endured and overcome similar or greater challenges before. This counters the modern feeling of unique, terminal decline.
Unlike the 2008 crisis, which was concentrated in housing and banking, today's risk is an 'everything bubble.' A decade of cheap money has simultaneously inflated stocks, real estate, crypto, and even collectibles, meaning a collapse would be far broader and more contagious.
The ability to print money creates inflation that widens the wealth gap. This hyper-inequality triggers a deep-seated, evolutionary psychological response against unfairness, which then manifests as widespread social unrest and societal breakdown.
Historically, countries crossing a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio experience revolution or collapse. As the U.S. approaches this threshold (currently 122%), its massive debt forces zero-sum political fights over a shrinking pie, directly fueling the social unrest and polarization seen today.
Historically, what tears societies apart is not economic depression itself but runaway wealth inequality. A major bubble bursting would dramatically widen the gap between asset holders and everyone else, fueling the populist anger and political violence that directly leads to civil unrest.
As governments print money, asset values rise while wages stagnate, dramatically increasing wealth inequality. This economic divergence is the primary source of the bitterness, anxiety, and societal infighting that manifests as extreme political polarization. The problem is economic at its core.
Despite narratives of higher purpose, the bedrock of modern life is economic specialization. This system ensures survival and allows for hyper-specialization, which is why economic disruptions so easily unravel societal stability and lead to global conflict.
The recent uptick in global conflicts, from Ukraine to the Caribbean, is not a series of isolated events. It's a direct result of adversaries perceiving American weakness and acting on the historical principle that nations expand their influence until they are met with sufficient counter-force.
