To curb undocumented immigration, the most effective strategy is targeting the demand side by imposing heavy, consistent fines on companies that hire undocumented workers. This removes the primary economic incentive for migration, leading to 'self-deportation' more effectively than focusing solely on border enforcement.
Instead of focusing on confrontational deportations, the most effective way to curb illegal immigration is to eliminate the job opportunities that attract people. By aggressively fining and jailing business owners who hire undocumented workers, the primary motivation for crossing the border would be removed, solving the problem at its source.
Contrary to common political narratives, undocumented immigrants are often a net positive for government finances. They are heavily documented for tax purposes (e.g., Social Security) and pay into these systems but are less likely to draw benefits, effectively subsidizing programs for citizens and creating a highly profitable workforce.
For decades, the US has benefited from a flexible, low-cost undocumented labor force that performs essential jobs domestic workers avoid. Both political parties have implicitly allowed this system to thrive because it is economically advantageous, creating a class of workers that is documented for profit but not for legal status.
Billions spent on border security hardware are a less effective use of funds than foreign aid. The same resources invested in stabilizing migrant populations in the first countries they flee to—supporting local healthcare, jobs, and schools—could prevent onward migration to the West for a fraction of the cost.
America intentionally avoided solving illegal immigration because it serves a crucial economic purpose: providing a flexible, cheap labor force that doesn't draw on social safety nets. This benefits industries and consumers while placing little burden on the state.
Many temporary workers would prefer to return home between jobs but remain in a host country illegally because they fear the high cost and danger of re-entering for the next work season. Creating safe, legal, and reliable re-entry pathways could significantly reduce irregular overstays.
Immigration policy must account for economic incentives. Unlike in the past, modern welfare states make immigration an economically rational choice for survival, not just opportunity. This shifts the dynamic, attracting individuals based on benefits rather than a desire to contribute without a safety net.
The restaurant industry, historically reliant on undocumented immigrants, faces a severe labor shortage due to tighter immigration. This has shrunk the pool of experienced cooks, causing the value of remaining documented workers to skyrocket. Wages now average nearly double the local minimum wage.
Current ICE raids are expensive ($100k per deportation) and seen as brutal. An alternative is to target the economic incentive by levying escalating fines on businesses hiring undocumented workers. This could disrupt the job market for illegal immigration more effectively, cheaply, and humanely.
Research shows new immigrants are absorbed into the housing market faster than the labor market. A policy shift towards border shutdowns and deportations would therefore likely ease shelter inflation more quickly than it would ease wage pressures, creating an unintuitive economic effect.