Instead of focusing on confrontational deportations, the most effective way to curb illegal immigration is to eliminate the job opportunities that attract people. By aggressively fining and jailing business owners who hire undocumented workers, the primary motivation for crossing the border would be removed, solving the problem at its source.
Contrary to common political narratives, undocumented immigrants are often a net positive for government finances. They are heavily documented for tax purposes (e.g., Social Security) and pay into these systems but are less likely to draw benefits, effectively subsidizing programs for citizens and creating a highly profitable workforce.
For decades, the US has benefited from a flexible, low-cost undocumented labor force that performs essential jobs domestic workers avoid. Both political parties have implicitly allowed this system to thrive because it is economically advantageous, creating a class of workers that is documented for profit but not for legal status.
America intentionally avoided solving illegal immigration because it serves a crucial economic purpose: providing a flexible, cheap labor force that doesn't draw on social safety nets. This benefits industries and consumers while placing little burden on the state.
The most effective conservation strategy for Jungle Keepers was to hire their enemies. They approached illegal loggers and miners, who were making $15/day in dangerous conditions, and offered them triple the pay, benefits, and safer work as rangers. This turned destroyers into protectors by aligning economic incentives.
In a true market economy, labor shortages are impossible; wages would simply rise to attract workers. The argument that a country needs low-skilled immigrants to fill jobs is often a way to artificially suppress wages for the domestic working class, preventing market forces from correcting the balance.
Restricting immigration halts a key source of labor for essential sectors like agriculture and construction. This drives up consumer costs and could cut GDP by 4-7%, creating a direct path to higher inflation and slower economic growth.
Immigration policy must account for economic incentives. Unlike in the past, modern welfare states make immigration an economically rational choice for survival, not just opportunity. This shifts the dynamic, attracting individuals based on benefits rather than a desire to contribute without a safety net.
The restaurant industry, historically reliant on undocumented immigrants, faces a severe labor shortage due to tighter immigration. This has shrunk the pool of experienced cooks, causing the value of remaining documented workers to skyrocket. Wages now average nearly double the local minimum wage.
Current ICE raids are expensive ($100k per deportation) and seen as brutal. An alternative is to target the economic incentive by levying escalating fines on businesses hiring undocumented workers. This could disrupt the job market for illegal immigration more effectively, cheaply, and humanely.
Research shows new immigrants are absorbed into the housing market faster than the labor market. A policy shift towards border shutdowns and deportations would therefore likely ease shelter inflation more quickly than it would ease wage pressures, creating an unintuitive economic effect.