Mark Carney, former head of the Bank of England and a symbol of globalism, announced at Davos that the old world order is dead. He stated a return to power politics and sovereignty is the new reality, marking a significant shift in elite consensus.
The post-WWII global framework, including international law, was a fragile agreement primarily enforced by the US. Its erosion is leading to a "might makes right" reality where nations like Russia, China, and the US act unilaterally in their perceived self-interest, abandoning the pretense of shared rules.
The post-1980s neoliberal consensus of small government and free trade is being replaced by a mercantilist approach. Governments, particularly the U.S., now actively intervene to protect domestic industries and secure geopolitical strength, treating trade as a zero-sum game. This represents a fundamental economic shift for investors.
For generations, Western societies have viewed peace and prosperity as the default state. This perception is a historical outlier, making the return to 'dog eat dog' great power politics seem shocking, when in fact it's a reversion to the historical norm of conflict.
The Western belief that free trade would cause authoritarian states like China to liberalize has proven false. Instead, this policy created a powerful manufacturing competitor whose interests diverge from the West's. The current era of deglobalization is an unwinding of this flawed foundational premise of the post-war order.
The World Economic Forum, once a bastion of thoughtful globalism, is shifting. Its attendees are becoming more aligned with Trump's transactional, oil-focused worldview, prioritizing personal prosperity and "getting in on the hustle" over upholding international law.
The annual Davos gathering, a long-standing symbol of global cooperation, now confronts its own potential obsolescence. The rise of populist and nationalist movements worldwide directly challenges the forum's core principle of globalism, forcing it to adapt or risk becoming an irrelevant relic.
The era of economic-led globalization is over. In the new world order, geopolitical interests are the primary driver of international relations. Economic instruments like tariffs and export restrictions are now used as levers to assert national interests, a fundamental shift from the US-centric view where the economy traditionally took the lead.
The traditional relationship where economic performance dictated political outcomes has flipped. Now, political priorities like tariff policies, reshoring, and populist movements are the primary drivers of economic trends, creating a more unpredictable environment for investors.
The post-Cold War era of stability is over. The world is returning to an 'Old Normal' where great power conflict plays out in the economic arena. This new state is defined by fiscal dominance, weaponized supply chains, and structurally higher inflation, risk premia, and volatility.
The world is shifting from a post-WWII "bundled" phase of globalization to an "unbundled" phase of populism. This decoupling, driven by anger at elite exploitation, is a predictable historical cycle, much like the recurring bundling and unbundling of media services.