To determine if a startup will succeed, analyze the sequence of events. Did organic customer demand and behavior exist before the startup created its supply (product, messaging)? If the startup is trying to force motion with its supply, it's a sign of conjuring demand and a higher risk of failure.

Successful startups tap into organic customer needs that already exist—a 'pull' from the market. In contrast, 'conjuring demand' involves a founder trying to convince a market of a new worldview without prior evidence. This is a much harder and less reliable path to building a business.

Visionary founders often try to sell their entire, world-changing vision from day one, which confuses buyers. To gain traction, this grand vision must be broken down into a specific, digestible solution that solves an immediate, painful problem. Repeatable sales come from a narrow focus, not a broad promise.

Instead of searching for a market to serve, founders should solve a problem they personally experience. This "bottom-up" approach guarantees product-market fit for at least one person—the founder—providing a solid foundation to build upon and avoiding the common failure of abstract, top-down market analysis.

This reframes the fundamental goal of a startup away from a supply-side focus (building) to a demand-side focus (discovery). The market's unmet need is the force that pulls a company and its product into existence, not the other way around.

A visionary founder must be willing to shelve their ultimate, long-term product vision if the market isn't ready. The pragmatic approach is to pivot to an immediate, tangible customer problem. This builds a foundational business and necessary ecosystem trust, paving the way to realize the grander vision in the future.