The historical lesson of Thucydides' Trap is misunderstood. The Peloponnesian War was caused by the hegemon, Athens, abusing its allies, leading them to rebel. This parallels current US tensions with its own allies, rather than its conflict with a rising China.

NATO's structure relies on allies following an American general's command under Article 5. After witnessing the "horrible, catastrophic failure" of US strategy in Iran, European nations will no longer entrust their militaries to US leadership, making the alliance functionally obsolete.

The transatlantic alliance is under severe strain, with European leaders' anger towards the U.S. reaching an unprecedented peak. They are frustrated by shouldering 100% of the financial burden for Ukraine's defense, only to be economically damaged by a U.S.-initiated Iran war they were not consulted on.

The pervasive belief that US alliances are beyond repair is dangerous. If policymakers accept this fatalistic view, they may cease the difficult work of maintenance and negotiation, inadvertently causing the very collapse they predict.

The current strain in the transatlantic relationship has evolved beyond policy disputes, like the 2003 Iraq War, into a political crisis. Actions regarding Ukraine and Greenland are perceived as a "U.S. betrayal," shattering the foundational trust that once held the alliance together and making recovery far more difficult.

The U.S.'s inability to decisively defeat or deter Iran mirrors the 1956 Suez Crisis for the British Empire. This moment signifies the end of an empire's psychological dominance, where the world realizes the hegemon can no longer enforce its will without costly, drawn-out conflicts, marking a definitive decline in its global power.

While Trump's demands cause short-term friction, they compel allies to increase their own military and strategic capabilities. This forced self-reliance could ironically create a more robust and balanced alliance network better suited for future challenges.

The backbone of NATO is not just US military might, but European trust in it. A dispute initiated by the US against allies is more existentially dangerous than past internal conflicts or external threats because it directly undermines the core assumption of mutual defense.

Even though President Trump backed down on tariffs over Greenland, the episode permanently eroded European trust in the U.S. as a reliable NATO partner. The erratic nature of the dispute raised serious questions about American dependability on more critical issues like Ukraine, suggesting long-term damage to the alliance.