Unlike traditional engineering, breakthroughs in foundational AI research often feel binary. A model can be completely broken until a handful of key insights are discovered, at which point it suddenly works. This "all or nothing" dynamic makes it impossible to predict timelines, as you don't know if a solution is a week or two years away.

While today's focus is on text-based LLMs, the true, defensible AI battleground will be in complex modalities like video. Generating video requires multiple interacting models and unique architectures, creating far greater potential for differentiation and a wider competitive moat than text-based interfaces, which will become commoditized.

Traditional video models process an entire clip at once, causing delays. Descartes' Mirage model is autoregressive, predicting only the next frame based on the input stream and previously generated frames. This LLM-like approach is what enables its real-time, low-latency performance.

Meta's chief AI scientist, Yann LeCun, is reportedly leaving to start a company focused on "world models"—AI that learns from video and spatial data to understand cause-and-effect. He argues the industry's focus on LLMs is a dead end and that his alternative approach will become dominant within five years.

The most fundamental challenge in AI today is not scale or architecture, but the fact that models generalize dramatically worse than humans. Solving this sample efficiency and robustness problem is the true key to unlocking the next level of AI capabilities and real-world impact.

Current multimodal models shoehorn visual data into a 1D text-based sequence. True spatial intelligence is different. It requires a native 3D/4D representation to understand a world governed by physics, not just human-generated language. This is a foundational architectural shift, not an extension of LLMs.

To analyze video cost-effectively, Tim McLear uses a cheap, fast model to generate captions for individual frames sampled every five seconds. He then packages all these low-level descriptions and the audio transcript and sends them to a powerful reasoning model. This model's job is to synthesize all the data into a high-level summary of the video.

When analyzing video, new generative models can create entirely new images that illustrate a described scene, rather than just pulling a direct screenshot. This allows AI to generate its own 'B-roll' or conceptual art that captures the essence of the source material.

The "bitter lesson" (scale and simple models win) works for language because training data (text) aligns with the output (text). Robotics faces a critical misalignment: it's trained on passive web videos but needs to output physical actions in a 3D world. This data gap is a fundamental hurdle that pure scaling cannot solve.