Iran perceives the conflict not as a regional dispute but as a direct threat to its existence. Its strategy is to make the war so costly for adversaries that it secures long-term guarantees against future attacks, framing its actions through a lens of survival.

Iran's strategy is not purely defensive. It is actively trying to escalate the conflict and draw in more countries by targeting other nations, such as firing a missile towards Turkey, a NATO member. This tactic aims to increase the political and military cost for the United States.

Iran counters the US "shock and awe" strategy by decentralizing its military command across 31 provinces. This "mosaic strategy" ensures there is no single 'head of the snake' to target, making a swift decapitation strike impossible and forcing a prolonged conflict.

Recognizing that the Strait of Hormuz is a declining asset as bypass pipelines are built, Iran's grand strategy is to establish a sphere of influence. This involves using proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis to control all potential oil transit routes, ensuring their long-term dominance over regional energy flow.

After U.S. and Israeli operations targeted top military, religious, and political figures, Iranian leadership concluded their state faced existential annihilation. Consequently, previously radical notions—such as striking American military assets across Europe and severing global undersea internet cables—have become accepted strategic options.

Iran's strategy involves striking non-combatant US allies like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. This imposes broad regional pain, demonstrating to the world that the economic and political costs of attacking Iran will be too high for anyone to bear, thus restoring long-term deterrence.

Iran has pivoted to using ballistic missiles, which require scarce and expensive SM-6 and PAC-3 interceptors to counter. This tactical shift effectively burns through the US's most advanced air defense inventory, creating strategic vulnerabilities for US forces.

Instead of only retaliating directly against a superior military power like the U.S., Iran escalates "horizontally." It uses drones and missiles to attack the economic interests (tourism, airports) of U.S. allies, pressuring them to expel American forces from their countries.

Direct wars with the US and Israel revealed that proxy forces like Hezbollah are no longer an effective deterrent. Iran's strategic thinking is shifting, downgrading the importance of its 'Axis of Resistance' in favor of its own advanced missile and drone arsenal as the primary defense mechanism.